 | 'The relatively good news was in Livingston, in which Labour's majority was cut by more than 10,000 with a 10.2% swing to the SNP. Despite attempts by the LibDem candidate to muscle in, the SNP successfully established itself as the focus for tactical voters wishing to send a message to Labour.' Douglas Fraser, Scottish Political Editor in the Herald, 30 th September 2005. |  |
IT could have been just another day for Labour's dominance of Scotland's central belt. But it was more than that: it saw continuing erosion of its vote in the twin by-election victories in Livingston and Glasgow Cathcart, while the big disappointments were the Scottish National Party and a political system that holds no attraction to two-thirds of voters.
One key question this morning is for all the parties about how to ensure the slide in participation does not continue to the point at which the legitimacy of Westminster or Holyrood is brought into question. Scottish Socialists will wake up this morning with a sore head and the need to ask tough questions of themselves and their strategy.
But the big and immediate issue for Scottish politics is why Alex Salmond and his SNP cannot convert two golden opportunities into breakthrough results. While there will be mutterings, his leadership is probably secure Ð but his strategy looks anything but.
Plans announced last month for adding 20 constituency seats at the 2007 Holyrood election to the nine already won by the SNP look all the more unrealistic.
This is mid-term for the Labour-LibDem administration at Holyrood, and disillusion runs high. The cause of the Glasgow contest Ð Lord Watson's imprisonment for fireraising Ð represented a prominent Labour embarrassment, while the West Lothian one should have been fertile new town territory, with a well-known female councillor as Nationalist candidate.
Mr Salmond should be doing better, yet the swing has fallen from previous by-elections fought against Labour incumbency.
The relatively good news was in Livingston, in which Labour's majority was cut by more than 10,000 with a 10.2% swing to the SNP.
Despite attempts by the LibDem candidate to muscle in, the SNP successfully established itself as the focus for tactical voters wishing to send a message to Labour.
It failed to do so in Cathcart, and the 3.7% swing will be disappointing in the type of west of Scotland seat where it simply must do much better.
The result should matter to the SNP in particular because it is a party and movement for which by-elections have a symbolic status and carry high expectations. Hamilton (1967) and Govan (1973 and 1988) represent historic breakthroughs, each of which caused shockwaves throughout Scottish politics. But in the past 60 years, these are three of only five gains at Westminster by-elections.
The gap between by-election myth and reality does it no favours.
For Conservatives and LibDems, the results offered no momentum in either direction, an outcome that the Tories in particular would have found useful.
And for Labour, last night's results look like a 100% strike rate, but the danger may be in complacency. The 2003 Holyrood results saw it slip 4% on both first and second votes. At the high points of the Westminster votes in 1997 and 2001, securing 56 out of 72 seats, it reached what must surely be a high water mark.
The question left by the latest by-election results should leave it wondering how best to manage inevitable decline. And winning only one vote out of eight in the electorate ought to put a bit of a dampener on their celebrations.
Return to home page