 | 'The by-election result has lifted the lid on grievances that had previously been kept off the boil. Brown doesnÕt rate McConnell, who now cannot possibly trust the Chancellor. MPs loathe MSPs, especially if they are LibDems. And the Deputy First Minister is using the victory to bait the First Minister, who can barely conceal his irritation at his younger colleague.' Scottish Political Editor Paul Hutcheon in the Sunday Herald, 12 th February 2006. |  |
On WEDNESDAY and Thursday the Leader of the House of Commons, Geoff Hoon, was making routine preparations to publish the eagerly awaited education bill. He gave an interview to GMTV's Sunday Programme, saying a deal had been done with Labour backbench rebels and that the bill would sail through. Away from the cameras, he said the bill would definitely be published next week, before the mid-term recess. Hoon's confident message? Problems solved.
That was before the result of the Dunfermline and West Fife by-election Ð an evaporated Labour majority of 11,500, a swing to the Liberal Democrats of 16%, a re-opening of tensions between Tony Blair and Gordon Brown over who is to blame for the shock defeat. As a result the education bill's publication has been delayed until the end of the month. The depressing message? The problems are back.
With Gordon Brown the high-profile face of the failed campaign and Scottish secretary Alistair Darling accepting responsibility for one of Labour's worst results in Scotland in nearly two decades, the recriminations split into three distinct camps. The most comforting analysis from one leading trade unionist was that 'Darling was just careless. He couldn't focus this campaign and when the alarm bells rang it was just too late.'
For some of the delegates at Labour's conference in Blackpool this weekend, most of them not the leading voices of their own constituency parties and so unaware of the need for unity in crisis, the arithmetic from Dunfermline signalled something more drastic. One Scottish delegate, repeating what many others believed, said: 'Maybe this is the time when Tony should go.'
For others the real loser in the Dunfermline constituency wasn't the Labour candidate, Euro MP Catherine Stihler, but the area's most famous resident, Gordon Brown. 'Bitter Labour rails at loser Brown,' said the Times, asking: 'If Gordon is not in touch with people in his own back yard, how will he get the message over to Middle England?'
Tessa Jowell, the culture secretary, understating the impact of the government's problem, called the result 'bad'. But she said 'local issues' had dominated the by-election and that nothing national could be read into the result. 'We have to learn the lessons and listen to what people expressed in this election. There is increasing evidence that local issues can dominate and influence how candidates are perceived. Westminster has to catch up with that.'
Downing Street, however, doesn't share Jowell's optimism. According to Number 10 sources, the Liberal Democrats ran a five-star campaign with the Labour campaign rating only one star. There is also real anger at Jack McConnell's 'presidential' interventions. According to one adviser close to Brown: 'McConnell played it stupidly, turning the issue of the toll on the Forth Bridge into an unnecessary constitutional tit-for-tat battle of words with the Chancellor. You can put that down as unhelpful or politically stupid. But McConnell will have done himself no favours. What Jack fails to realise is that he's stronger with Gordon alongside him than without him.'
Regardless of the resumption of in-fighting between Blairites and Brownites, the reality is that the Dunfermline result damages them both. Brown intended a speech he's scheduled to give tomorrow in London to be part of a wider image-building programme as he moves closer to taking over from Blair as Labour leader.
Now the Fife result gives his speech Ð on anti-terrorism measures, homeland security, and attacks that have been thwarted in Britain since 7/7 Ð a new dimension. A speech from a prime - minister-in-waiting has become a speech in which he has to prove his authority is not diminished by one bad by-election.
In addition to giving his full backing to the government's anti-terror measures that will be voted on in the Commons this week, Brown will also tell an audience at the Royal United Services Institute: 'For nine years as Chancellor, my aim has been a Britain strong in our stability. In the years ahead, I want a Britain both strong in stability and strong in security, so that it can be said not just that our national stability is safe in our hands, but that our national security is safe in our hands.'
Blair, after dodging any mention of Dunfermline in Blackpool, flies back from a weekend in South Africa for the votes on ID cards, anti-terror measures and smoking. The only thing positive the Prime Minister can take from Dunfermline is that votes did not switch directly from Labour to Tory. Such comfort may be limited to Scotland, though.
In England, where David Cameron's rebranding of the Conservatives is likely to have a greater appeal, there will be worries that Blair's leadership will be under massive pressure as May's local elections near.
One Brownite MP said: 'The comfort of a Liberal Democrat protest vote in Scotland is one thing. Large-scale abstentions and, even worse, outright loss of Labour votes to Cameron is something the party cannot cope with if it is serious about winning a fourth term. Tony mentioned the prize of a fourth term in his speech in Blackpool. If he really wants that to happen, maybe he should consider if he's now the barrier to that achievement and step aside before there's more damage.'
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