 | 'Could last night's result confirm times are permanently changing in Scottish politics? Slated for complacency, Labour has proven vulnerable in its heartlands and the Holyrood administration has shown the SNP is not just about electoral guerrilla tactics.' Douglas Fraser, Scottish Political Editor in the Herald, 25 th July 2008. |  |
An uncharismatic accountant, John Mason MP, now joins the Scottish National Party's elite roll of honour. Its by-election history has fuelled the movement's momentum with five victories to which Glasgow East 2008 is now added.
It began with Robert McIntyre in Motherwell in 1945, Winnie Ewing winning Hamilton in 1967, Margo MacDonald in Glasgow Govan in 1973 and her husband Jim Sillars winning it again in 1988, and then Roseanna Cunningham in Perth and Kinross 1995. Only the last of these retained her seat at the subsequent General Election.
But could last night's result confirm times are permanently changing in Scottish politics? Slated for complacency, Labour has proven vulnerable in its heartlands and the Holyrood administration has shown the SNP is not just about electoral guerrilla tactics.
Given the opportunity, and tapping into aspirations at least as much as grievance, it can claim to pick off its targets anywhere in Scotland.
The biggest challenge Alex Salmond faces in the wake of last night's result is how to keep a lid on his party's expectations of what it can achieve when it goes into the Westminster campaign expected in spring 2010. It is not a bad problem to have.
Gordon Brown's outlook could not be much grimmer in the wake of a third by-election thumping.
First in the trilogy of the classical tragedy that appears to have overcome his leadership came Crewe and Nantwich in May. A moderately safe Labour seat in Cheshire was lost to the Tories on a 17% swing. Then came Henley, where Labour was humiliated in fifth place.
The Glasgow East by-election, forced by the sudden resignation of a long-time Labour MP, was a test of whether Brown's leadership was so damaged that he could not even hold the third safest seat in his Scottish backyard.
With nowhere safe for Labour MPs, the obvious questions facing his party are, first, whether Gordon Brown should remain leader until the General Election. If so, what needs to change?
And if not, will he go quietly, can anyone work the tricky rules for a challenge to oust him, who is the person to take over, and what would they do differently that could turn around Labour's fortunes?
The Prime Minister will not have to face his MPs or the Commons until after the summer recess but he has to face the media glare today as he goes to Warwick for the party's policy forum.
At that, trade union leaders hope to use his vulnerability, as well as the party's indebtedness to them, to secure concessions on workplace reform in the next Labour manifesto. Some argue that may be more of a threat to Mr Brown's future than Glasgow East.
However, the best chance for Mr Brown's survival may be the lack of appetite among potential rivals to take over at such a difficult political and economic time.
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