The Glasgow East By-election 2008

'In a devastating blow for the Prime Minister, the SNP won the Glasgow East by-election with a 22 per cent swing. Nationalist candidate John Mason overturned Labour's 13,507 majority to win the seat by 365 votes. The result - announced just after 2.20am following a recount - will spark panic among Labour MPs and cast fresh doubt over the Prime Minister's future. SNP leader Alex Salmond said the result was a judgement on the relative performances of the Scottish and UK governments.' Ian Swanson in the Evening News, 25 th July 2008.

Brown on the ropes after SNP knockout

By Ian Swanson in the Evening News, 25 th July 2008

GORDON Brown today faced calls for an early general election after the Scottish National Party staged a massive political upset by winning one of Labour's safest seats in Scotland.

In a devastating blow for the Prime Minister, the SNP won the Glasgow East by-election with a 22 per cent swing. Nationalist candidate John Mason overturned Labour's 13,507 majority to win the seat by 365 votes.

The result - announced just after 2.20am following a recount - will spark panic among Labour MPs and cast fresh doubt over the Prime Minister's future.

SNP leader Alex Salmond said the result was a judgement on the relative performances of the Scottish and UK governments.

And Tory leader David Cameron urged Mr Brown to call an early general election.

He said: "I think the Prime Minister should have his holiday but then I think we need an election.

"I think we need change in this country, and that's how change should come about."

Last night's result comes just two months after Labour lost Crewe & Nantwich to the Tories in another by-election disaster.

Glasgow East had been Labour's third safest seat in Scotland, and 25th safest in the UK.

The turn-out was 42 per cent - much higher than expected and only slightly down on the 48 per cent figure for the general election.

Election guru Professor John Curtice of Strathclyde University said a similar 22 per cent swing at a general election would give the SNP 50 out of Scotland's 59 Westminster seats and leave Labour with only one MP in Scotland - Tom Clarke in Coatbridge.

Even Gordon Brown would lose his own seat in Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath.

Mr Salmond - who had predicted a political earthquake at the start of the Glasgow East campaign - insisted he did not believe Mr Brown would quit as a result.

He said: "I don't think we will see an immediate exit for Gordon Brown from Downing Street. I think it is more likely he will change policy rather than change himself.

"The policy that needs to be changed is on the economy. We need a plan for recovery, we need a plan to stave off recession.

"We need action taken to ease the pressure on household budgets in Glasgow East and across Scotland."

Mr Brown and his Cabinet colleagues have repeatedly insisted losing Glasgow East would not force him to step down.

But the result is bound to fuel discontent among backbenchers over his poor personal poll ratings and presentation skills, as well as decisions such as the 10p tax row and vehicle excise duty. Mr Brown was facing Labour's policy forum in Warwick today with recriminations in full swing. The defeat will also overshadow his talks with US presidential candidate Barack Obama tomorrow.

Lothians Labour MSP George Foulkes blamed the economic situation for Labour's defeat.

He said: "People have been concerned about rising prices - that's been the story for weeks now - and although it's a worldwide phenomenon, in each country the national government gets blamed for it."

But he said it would be "absolutely crazy" for Labour to seek to replace Gordon Brown.

Mr Foulkes said: "There is no likelihood of a challenge to his leadership. Anyone who even suggests it is out of their mind.

"We've got to stick by him. He is the right leader. Blaming him is like blaming him because the weather is bad."

Mr Foulkes insisted Labour had recovered from worse setbacks before. But he added: "We are going to have to face Alex Salmond with an even broader grin."

Labour's Scottish Secretary Des Browne said the Government's measures on the economy so far had not been enough. "We do need to listen," he said.

"And we need to do more of the sorts of things that we've been doing to respond to people to make them feel that there is a sense of fairness about the way in which we are dealing with the challenges that they are facing day to day."

He added: "People do not think that the steps we are taking at the moment are adequately responding to the circumstances they feel.

"We need to build on what we have been doing but we also need to hold our nerve and hold the course on the longer-term issues."

In his victory speech, Mr Mason said: "Three weeks ago the SNP predicted a political earthquake. This SNP victory is not just a political earthquake, it is off the Richter scale. It is an epic win, and the tremors are being felt all the way to Downing Street."

He said the "dead hand" of Labour control was being removed from Scotland.

"Labour MPs across Scotland will be quaking in their boots," Mr Mason added. "The East End has sent a powerful message - a message that is right now resonating in Downing Street."

Defeated Labour candidate Margaret Curran said: "I do believe the Labour Party has to listen and has to hear the message from the people of Glasgow East.

"I'm in politics because I'm driven to tackle poverty, inequality and to liberate the people of Scotland and Great Britain from those great injustices and my commitment remains as strong as ever."

And Ms Curran, who is already MSP for part of the area, added: "While I regret losing this election and I understand that loss, I do not regret standing. Because for me fundamentally, Labour is a cause and not a career - and it is a cause I will continue to pursue."

SNP deputy leader Nicola Sturgeon said the result was a "catastrophe" for Gordon Brown. "It's a seismic shift in Scottish politics."

She said Glasgow East was the first by-election which was a contest between two governments - Alex Salmond's in Holyrood and Gordon Brown's in Westminster.

"The London government is deeply unpopular, but this is a massive vote of confidence in the SNP's Holyrood government."

The Tories leapfrogged the Lib Dems to come third in the by-election. Tory Shadow Scottish Secretary David Mundell said: "We have to look at the vote in a UK context, not just a Scottish one. It's devastating for Gordon Brown and Labour and shows that they are now seriously on the slide."

Acting Scottish Liberal Democrat leader Michael Moore said: "The people of Glasgow East have delivered a crushing vote of no confidence in the Prime Minister and his Labour Government in Westminster."