 | 'If Labour cannot win here, how will it fare in Middle England? Nobody can seriously write off this result as mid-term blues, when electors have a habit of using their ballots to send rude messages to the government. In some ways, it was, as the SNP suggested, a head-on clash between a Scottish government and a London one.' Herald Editorial, 23 rd July 2008. |  |
By any measure, John Mason's election as the Member of Parliament for Glasgow East is a remarkable victory. The swing (22.5%) may have been smaller than the Nationalists' previous by-election shocks in Hamilton and Govan, but in the annals of the Scottish National Party it will retain a special place because it reflects how far the tectonic plates of Scottish politics have shifted since Labour delivered devolution in 1999. For Labour, this is a disastrous result. If replicated in a General Election it would not only unseat Gordon Brown but leave Labour in Scotland with one solitary MP. If Labour cannot win here, how will it fare in Middle England?
Nobody can seriously write off this result as mid-term blues, when electors have a habit of using their ballots to send rude messages to the government. In some ways, it was, as the SNP suggested, a head-on clash between a Scottish government and a London one. This not only effectively squeezed out the other parties. It also gave a newly-elected SNP government with a few populist gestures under its belt a clear advantage over a third-term Labour government grappling with some major macro-economic issues. This contest witnessed less of the visceral hatred of Gordon Brown apparent in recent English elections than a fatigue with a Labour Party that has taken constituencies like this for granted for too long.
Mr Mason, a bland but affable candidate who has carefully cultivated this patch as an effective councillor of 10 years' standing, ran a vigorous and well-organised campaign. We wish him well. Labour's Margaret Curran, though defending a majority of 13,500, had an uphill battle from the start. She was by no means first choice for the nomination in a seat once considered so safe that the local party was ill-prepared for a hard-fought contest. Without her professionalism and passionate commitment, Labour's showing would have been even worse. Her sacrifice may damage her career and almost certainly excludes her from the forthcoming Holyrood leadership contest. The constituency has been a victim of myopia and amnesia. Some grotesque caricatures of the area appeared in some of the English press. Yet an irony of this contest is that Glasgow East, with its new shopping malls, schools and community centres, and with tax credits and job creation, has improved immeasurably under successive Labour councils and governments. A new aspirational population has moved into the leafier areas and this is precisely where the SNP drew much of its support.
Yet it also remains an area of entrenched inequality, with much political heavy lifting still to do to tackle low life expectancy and stubbornly high unemployment and illiteracy. The challenge for Mr Mason is to make his voice heard on these issues as one of a small group of Westminster Nationalists with a proclivity for grandstanding on constitutional issues. There is scant evidence that the SNP won this election because the people of Easterhouse believe that independence will solve their problems.
The SNP at Holyrood must also come up with a vision and a programme for tackling the inequalities that continue to blight so many lives. If Labour is to dispel talk of terminal decline, it must rally quickly under a new leader and get on with the job of tackling the SNP's vulnerability on local income tax and social justice issues. Nationally, Gordon Brown has little option but to struggle on and hope to steady the ship by the end of 2009. These are the factors that will determine whether John Mason can hold on to Glasgow East, come the General Election. History suggests that the SNP soon loses seats won from Labour in by-elections, but in the current climate all bets are off.
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