 | 'So the political seismologist from Banff and Buchan was right after all. The earthquake Alex Salmond had predicted roared and rumbled right on cue through Glasgow East early yesterday morning.' Michael Settle in the Herald, 23 rd July 2008. |  |
| 'So the political seismologist from Banff and Buchan was right after all. The earthquake Alex Salmond had predicted roared and rumbled right on cue through Glasgow East early yesterday morning.' Michael Settle in the Herald, 23 rd July 2008. | |
So the political seismologist from Banff and Buchan was right after all.
The earthquake Alex Salmond had predicted roared and rumbled right on cue through Glasgow East early yesterday morning.
As the dust settled, Labour's rattled band of brothers and sisters removed themselves to Warwick, ostensibly to ponder what should go into the next General Election manifesto.
However, their heads were still ringing from the boneshaker of the night before and talk was as much about the drama in Scotland than anything else. The delegates to the party's National Policy Forum did not have long to wait for the first major aftershock.
It came courtesy of Paul Kenny, leader of the GMB union, when he suggested MPs should hold a snapshot leadership ballot in September to determine whether or not Gordon Brown should remain leader.
He insisted Labour could not go into the next General Election as a "divided" party and if MPs were tired of the PM, they should "put up or shut up" and hold a ballot.
His phraseology, of course, conjured up images of the hapless John Major whose battered government dragged on until it suffered a dreadful thrashing at the polls.
In the aftermath of such a political upheaval as Glasgow East, the disappointment, frustration, uncertainty and even fear many Labour MPs must feel as they ponder their chances of electoral survival make it difficult to calibrate the right response.
Yesterday, some of the usual suspects called on the PM to go but, as yet, despite the turbulence of lost local elections, a mayoral elections and three by-elections, no-one signif-icant has broken cover.
Privately, some ministers have concluded Labour cannot win under Brown. Yet the key questions resurface: who could do a better job and who on earth would want to try?
A few back benchers argue new blood such as Jim Murphy and Liam Byrne as well as experienced hands like Margaret Beckett and Alan Milburn could help steady the ship.
It is an intriguing idea. September, however, can be the cruellest political month. It was two years ago the plotters did for Tony Blair.
While their tactics did not pay off in the short term, their strategy ultimately saw the back of Mr Blair a year earlier than he had wanted to go.
Yesterday, Cabinet ministers circled the wagons around their beleaguered leader, some more enthusiastically than others, it has to be said. The chances of Mr Brown volunteering to depart are slim to non-existent; he believes himself to be a man with a mission and quitting is not part of it.
Yet, with the prospect of public sector strikes, the economic downturn set to last well into next year and the ever-present possibility of more parliamentary by-elections, the PM might have to withstand a few more earthquakes before the year is out.
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