The Glasgow East By-election 2008

'Mr Salmond's "earthquake" claim builds on his record of making extravagant predictions he then goes on to deliver. He did not quite make the 20 extra Holyrood constituencies forecast at last year's election, but he beat expectations by the alternative route of regional lists. The aim for 2010 is to get from six, plus John Mason MP, to 20 out of 59. On the basis of Glasgow East, that now looks uncharacteristically modest.' Robbie Dinwoodie, Chief Scottish Political Correspondent in the Herald, 23 rd July 2008.

Salmond's strategy on course, with eye to St Andrew's Day 2010

By Robbie Dinwoodie, Chief Scottish Political Correspondent in the Herald, 26 th July 2008

Alex Salmond goes back to school next month, when he takes part in an informal summer seminar series in Ireland.

The holiday, delayed to fight the Glasgow East by-election, has turned into something more educational in County Mayo, accompanied by his wife Moira.

While Gordon Brown vacations in the quintessential English seaside resort of Southwold, the Salmonds follow up with some time on the Isle of Skye.

Before that, the First Minister takes his cabinet on the road, with a series of events around the ministerial meeting in Dumfries next Tuesday, including another forum for his National Conversation on independence. Similar outings follow to Pitlochry, Inverness and, again, Skye.

Mr Salmond can start his summer programme feeling quite chipper. The Nationalist leader took a significant gamble on talking up "an earthquake" in Glasgow East. Not many votes in the other direction, and his hype would have been punctured.

But this is winner-take-all politics, and Mr Salmond can take not just the seat, but the credit for investing his status and time in the campaign. Portraying it as two governments head to head allows him to claim the result is an endorsement of his administration, renewing his mandate while asserting equal status with the Prime Minister.

It would be a stretch to say Glasgow East represented a boost in support for Mr Salmond's independence cause. The issue rarely featured in the campaign. It was mainly Labour that raised it, suggesting John Mason is something of a hardline obsessive, but apparently finding in the result more evidence that its electoral scare tactics are wearing thin.

However, it did confirm the SNP government's strategy is on course; to build confidence and a reputation for competence, timing its move to an independence referendum to maximise its chances of transforming that electoral support into a "yes" vote on St Andrew's Day 2010. Momentum towards that target matters, and Glasgow East provided lots of it.

But before then, there are elections. A high priority is to put down roots in Glasgow East to ensure it does not become one of the SNP's losses at subsequent general elections.

Mr Salmond's "earthquake" claim builds on his record of making extravagant predictions he then goes on to deliver. He did not quite make the 20 extra Holyrood constituencies forecast at last year's election, but he beat expectations by the alternative route of regional lists. The aim for 2010 is to get from six, plus John Mason MP, to 20 out of 59. On the basis of Glasgow East, that now looks uncharacteristically modest.