The Glasgow East By-election 2008

'Fortress Labour has been breached, and it will take huge efforts to repair the defences.' Robbie Dinwoodie, Chief Scottish Political Correspondent in the Herald, 23 rd July 2008.

Now Fortress Labour is breached, what on earth is next?

By Robbie Dinwoodie, Chief Scottish Political Correspondent in the Herald, 26 th July 2008

Alex Salmond staked much of his credibility as First Minister on the way he made the Glasgow East by-election a contest between two governments.

Having overturned one of Labour's biggest majorities and conjured up a stunning SNP victory, he responded yesterday: "Some risk. Some gamble. Some result."

The stunning victory came about as a result of a combination of political nous, sophisticated intelligence gathering, cutting-edge computer software, streetwise activists and young locals attuned to the social networking revolution.

The morning-after event, for a victory attributed by the SNP - and some within Labour - to the politics of aspiration over those of fear, took place outside the Next store at the Fort shopping centre in Easterhouse. For both the Nationalists and Gordon Brown's party of Westminster Government, the question is, what on earth is next?

Mr Salmond said of his winning candidate, John Mason: "The theme that John developed during the campaign was to send a message to Gordon Brown and to send it in clear and unmistakable terms - that message is change your policy or change your job.

"This by-election was unique, a by-election which was a test of strength between the Labour London government led by Gordon Brown and an SNP government in Scotland doing its best for the Scottish people.

"That was a test of strength that the Labour Party set the timing of. It was in their third safest seat in the whole of Scotland. That was the test of strength, and it was London Labour that was found wanting and the SNP in Scotland that emerged victorious. We now command the agenda in Scottish politics."

The team of the new SNP MP for Glasgow East are already looking for premises in which to base a constituency office, probably in a very public shop-front which will stand as a reproach against the previous Labour MP, David Marshall, whose home served as his constituency office. Mr Mason was predicting yesterday that Gordon Brown was likely to go at least 18 months before calling a General Election, and that would give the SNP time to dig in and defend its new enclave in Labour's heartland.

The Nationalists are now unrecognisable from the party that used to achieve decent swings without actually winning, or who won by-elections they would never hold. Senior strategists revealed some of their secrets yesterday, and it will give Labour pause for thought.

The SNP had well over 500 activists on the ground from all over Scotland on the final weekend of the campaign, all of whom will have gone back to their constituencies with a spring in their step. Spearheading the effort were the crew from Dundee, who have been battle-hardened by wresting that city from Labour control and who were keen to demonstrate what can be achieved by sheer hard work on the streets.

They were working with the benefit of "Activate" - the party's sophisticated canvassing system which replaced the traditional FPDA system (For, Probable, Doubtful, Against).

Then there was the use of the Mosaic consumer identification software, which the developers Experian describe as providing "a rich picture of UK consumers in terms of socio-demographics, lifestyles, culture and behaviour".

The SNP are keen not to overplay the importance of this, saying it requires political savvy to get the best out of it, but it can help with the themes and wording of campaign material, and who it's sent to.

It also meant that when activists did the final push to get the vote out on Thursday they could approach households they had been unable to get through to previously with the confidence of knowing voter profiles from similar streets and homes.

And then there was the youthful nature of much of the constituency activist base. John Mason may be 51 and a councillor for a decade with an appeal to older voters, but other new councillors elected last May are younger and the constituency organiser is only 18.

Young activists in Glasgow are making heavy use of Facebook, the social networking website, to gather online, encourage each other and plan activities in the real world when they are not plotting in cyberspace.

Angus Robertson, the party's Westminster leader, said he believed from the Friday before polling day that victory was within their grasp when he was conducting a "conversion canvass" among people who still identified themselves as Labour sympathisers but who were coming across to the SNP.

He pointed out yesterday that the Glasgow East swing of more than 22.5% would sweep away 37 more Labour seats in Scotland. "This result was a vote of confidence in the SNP Government and shows more people than ever before think the SNP is on their side and now believe that voting SNP works."

Yesterday's event in the sunshine at the Fort was slick and presidential.

Fortress Labour has been breached, and it will take huge efforts to repair the defences.