 | 'The obvious question is: why has Scottish Labour proved so inept in opposition? For one thing, it chose the wrong leader in Wendy Alexander, who was (like Gordon Brown) given the job unopposed and therefore untested.' Scotsman Editorial, 23 rd July 2008. |  |
FOR once the hyperbole turned out to be close to the mark: Labour's defeat in the Glasgow East by-election does appear to be a political earthquake that cannot be dismissed lightly as a mid-term hiccup. But, equally, Scotland is not about to secede from the Union and we still have nearly two years to run before Britain decides who will form the next Westminster government. It is within those parameters that we must now read the political runes.
In Scotland, the by-election reveals that the local Labour Party machine, far from having begun to recover from its Holyrood defeat in 2007, is in greater crisis than ever. The loss of not just a safe seat, but bedrock Labour territory, is a humiliating blow to the party. Scottish Labour finds itself not just without a leader, but also seeing its natural supporters for over half a century vote for the Nationalists. And not just a protest vote for the SNP as an opposition party, but a vote for them as the party of government in the Scottish Parliament.
Scottish Labour faces a combination of organisational meltdown and the Nationalists actually increasing their grip on power. In these circumstances Labour cannot guarantee to hold Jack McConnell's Holyrood seat if he quits to go to Malawi as High Commissioner. If it fell to the Nationalists it would greatly strengthen Alex Salmond's position at Holyrood.
THE obvious question is: why has Scottish Labour proved so inept in opposition? For one thing, it chose the wrong leader in Wendy Alexander, who was (like Gordon Brown) given the job unopposed and therefore untested. Labour cannot begin its recovery in Scotland without electing a new leadership. It is imperative the new leader emerges out of an open contest that allows the party to debate its problems in public and scrutinises the various candidates in the tough glare of publicity. Labour needs to choose someone who can take on Mr Salmond, not someone beholden to Downing Street or to party cliques.
But that is only the start of Scottish Labour's road to recovery. The Glasgow by-election defeat is proof that Labour has to do more than shrug its shoulders and wait for the turn of the electoral cycle. The party has been short on policy initiatives that grab the public's imagination. Meantime, the SNP Government has frozen council tax, reduced prescription charges, scrapped endowment fees and lowered business rates.
True, the SNP's flagship policy of introducing a local income tax is deeply flawed and its replacement for Private Finance Initiative funding of infrastructural projects is all smoke and mirrors. But voters appear to be responding to the SNP's sense of urgency and finding no corresponding energy in Scottish Labour. The new Labour leader will need to work fast to fill the ideas vacuum.
Nor can Scottish Labour go on ignoring the independence question. The Glasgow by-election has strengthened the SNP's hand politically. SNP activists are once again in thrall to Mr Salmond's willingness to take a political gamble and win against the odds. Mr Salmond sees a Tory government in London by 2010, with 20 SNP MPs possibly holding the balance of power at Westminster.
In those circumstances, would David Cameron deny a referendum? And are Scottish Labour voters guaranteed to reject the break-up of the UK if they fear that a Tory government will rip up the Barnett Formula? Scottish Labour (not to mention Gordon Brown) cannot go on yielding the political initiative to Mr Salmond. In this respect, Wendy Alexander's intuition on the need for an early referendum had a lot going for it.
WHERE does the Glasgow by-election result leave Gordon Brown and British politics? Mr Brown can make a good case that he has the experience to lead Britain through the credit crunch and global economic slowdown. At the very least, Mr Cameron's Tories have come up with nothing practical on the economic front that is convincing: are they for raising taxes or lowering them? Spending more or spending less? Mr Cameron seems to give out different messages on different days.
But unfortunately for Mr Brown, the solutions to the economic crisis - such as his suggestion for new international banking institutions - are too abstract for the ordinary voter and will take far too long to implement. The Glasgow by-election, following on from recent by-election defeats in England, indicate that the sands of time are running out for Mr Brown. His favourite economic remedies will take years. But he has, at maximum, only 23 months to win over the electorate before having to call a general election. He is not good at short-term thinking, but he must deliver some short-term results or forfeit the election.
Inevitably, there will be some inside Labour's ranks who will want to drop Mr Brown. That is a high-risk strategy: parties that engage in civil war are never rewarded by the electorate. It is theoretically possible that if Mr Brown was deposed and a new leader from the younger political generation installed by the autumn, there might just be time to win over the electorate. But merely spelling this out in black and white suggests how unlikely a scenario it is. There are no obvious alternatives to the Prime Minister, nor are the senior Labour Cabinet members brave enough to tell him to go.
IF IN a year's time the polls are still dire, Labour might conceivably defenestrate Gordon Brown as the Tories did with Margaret Thatcher. Yet in the present electoral arithmetic it is difficult to see Labour doing a John Major and pulling victory from the jaws of defeat. For a start, no British political party that has been as low in the polls as Labour now is, or for so long, has bounced back at the ensuing election. Besides, the Glasgow by-election suggests that Scottish voters might plump for Alex Salmond over a David Miliband or James Purnell, imperilling any possible Labour UK majority.
The SNP did indeed cause a political earthquake with the Glasgow East by-election, but time will tell if there has been a seismic shift in the nation's political landscape. Mr Salmond has proved adroit at exposing Labour's weakness. But the Nationalists have a few blind spots of their own - the local income tax fiasco and the deepening budget cuts in local government to name but two. Before the SNP takes too much for granted it should learn the true lesson of Glasgow East - the voters always have the last say.
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