 | 'The influential Dod's guide to parliamentary constituencies notes that "if Labour ever loses here to the SNP at a national election, we would be doubtless witnessing the birth of an independent Scotland".
It's going to be some fight.' Brian Currie, in the Herald, 20 th May 2009. |  |
A by-election in Glasgow is the last thing Labour wants, particularly after the painful defeat at the hands of the SNP last summer - but that is a gamble the party hierarchy may have to consider.
The reason is straightforward - their best chance of winning Michael Martin's Glasgow North East seat at Westminster would be to select his son, Paul, who represents Springburn at Holyrood.
Their constituencies cover largely the same area, with the Westminster seat taking in three additional communities in Milton, Ashfield and Keppochhill.
As Speaker, Mr Martin is impartial, owing no allegiance to any political party, but he was elected as Labour MP for Springburn in 1979 and held it through the boundary changes of 1995 under which it was renamed Glasgow North East.
It is traditional Labour territory but so was Glasgow East until the SNP's stunning victory last summer.
Labour has to win Glasgow North East, or face the fact that voters in its heartlands are turning away.
Mr Martin, junior, would be the party's best bet if he could be persuaded to stand. He has established a very good reputation as a constituency MSP and is the Labour Party spokesman on community safety at the Scottish Parliament.
He would come under pressure to resign from his Holyrood seat, triggering another by-election, but that doesn't have to happen and the SNP would have little to say if it did since it is precisely what First Minister Alex Salmond is doing now as MP for Banff and Buchan and MSP for Gordon.
Another name certain to be mentioned as a potential Labour candidate is council leader Steven Purcell, but he was also tapped about standing last year in Glasgow East and rejected the opportunity.
Last night another name suggested as a possible replacement was a local activist in Springburn, Willie Bain.
Whoever takes the job for Labour faces a big challenge. The area has been affected by the Labour-led city council's schools' closure programme and, coupled with the row over MPs' expenses and the Speaker's handling of the scandal, a Labour insider said their candidate would face a "perfect storm".
As Speaker, Mr Martin has faced fewer challenges in General Elections than other candidates because the Tories and LibDems have observed the convention of not standing against him.
That will change this time, with all the main parties taking part in the fight.
At the 2005 General Election the SNP netted a respectable 18% of the vote and they will be expecting to build on John Mason's victory last year in Glasgow East.
According to SNP leader Alex Salmond that was a "political earthquake", and taking another seat in Labour's Glasgow heartlands would certainly be a seismic shift.
Glasgow North East remains one of the poorest constituencies in the UK, with the smallest proportion of owner-occupiers in Scotland.
The influential Dod's guide to parliamentary constituencies notes that "if Labour ever loses here to the SNP at a national election, we would be doubtless witnessing the birth of an independent Scotland".
It's going to be some fight.
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