 | 'Will Labour go quickly and try to bury what is likely to be an adverse result in the dog days of summer? The party tried that trick last July, holding a by-election in the adjoining seat of Glasgow East during the cityÕs holiday season. Their rushed and shambolic campaign resulted in the Scottish National party overturning a majority of 13,500 to win what had previously been seen as an impregnable Labour stronghold.' Financial Times, 28 th May 2009. |  |
Gordon Brown faces a nightmarish choice over when to hold a by-election in Glasgow North East, the seat that will be vacated next month by Michael Martin, the outgoing Speaker.
Will Labour go quickly and try to bury what is likely to be an adverse result in the dog days of summer? The party tried that trick last July, holding a by-election in the adjoining seat of Glasgow East during the cityÕs holiday season. Their rushed and shambolic campaign resulted in the Scottish National party overturning a majority of 13,500 to win what had previously been seen as an impregnable Labour stronghold.
Yet it would be premature to view the contest as a shoo-in for the SNP.
Mr Martin won 53 per cent of the vote at the 2005 general election, giving him a majority of 10,134 over the nationalists. But even though the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats had followed Westminster convention and not contested the SpeakerÕs seat, the SNP took only 18 per cent of the votes, with most of the rest going to far-left candidates.
When another Scottish Labour MP died last August, the party decided to play it long and did not hold the consequent by-election in Glenrothes until November. Even then, Labour fatalism was so entrenched that it chose a date just after the US presidential election to limit coverage of what was expected to be another SNP victory.
But by then the financial crisis had intervened and the prime minister was leading the government rescue of Royal Bank of Scotland and HBOS, the two-Edinburgh-based banks at the centre of the meltdown in the UK. Mr Brown was able to act decisively while the SNP was sidelined Ð and Labour easily held off the nationalist challenge in Glenrothes, a seat that adjoins his own Fife constituency of Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath.
Both Labour and the SNP are also fretting over the prospect that, in the present febrile political atmosphere, an independent anti-sleaze candidate could come into Glasgow North East and upset all their calculations.
Mr Brown could go for an early poll but it seems more likely that Ð like Mr Micawber Ð he will wait for something to turn up.
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