The Glasgow North East By-election 2009

'THE SNP are strong candidates to snatch the traditionally safe Labour seat of Glasgow North East in a by-election, political analysts have said. Professor John Curtice, of Strathclyde University, said Labour would be fortunate to hold the seat if the SNP ran as competent a campaign as it ran in Glasgow East last summer. The constituencies are very similar. They are both deprived, working-class areas with traditionally solid Labour votes, where no other party has done well for decades.' Hamish MacDonell and David Maddox in the Scotsman, 20 th May 2009.

Nationalists poised to break Labour's grip on Glasgow North East seat

By Hamish MacDonell and David Maddox in the Scotsman 20 th May 2009

THE SNP are strong candidates to snatch the traditionally safe Labour seat of Glasgow North East in a by-election, political analysts have said.

Professor John Curtice, of Strathclyde University, said Labour would be fortunate to hold the seat if the SNP ran as competent a campaign as it ran in Glasgow East last summer.

The constituencies are very similar. They are both deprived, working-class areas with traditionally solid Labour votes, where no other party has done well for decades.

Having won in Glasgow East last year, however, the Nationalists will be confident of doing the same in Glasgow North East, particularly as Labour has become embroiled in the expenses scandal, while the SNP has avoided the worst of the fallout.

Prof Curtice said: "This is traditionally a very safe Labour seat but, at the moment, one would say that the SNP would win it if it can campaign as effectively as in Glasgow East."

Senior sources within Glasgow Labour have also admitted defeat. One said: "It is going to be brutal, and I think we are stuffed. We will either have to put up somebody with a lot of ability and fortitude or somebody who is willing to take the bullet. Willie (Bain] would fall into that category."

Another senior source said: "The party is reeling at the moment. We will fight this hard, but it's going to be very difficult to hold it."

The Scotsman understands that the favourite to be Labour Party candidate is Mr Martin's agent, Willie Bain. It is believed that Mr Martin will want one of his own people as a candidate, so it looks highly unlikely that his son, Glasgow Springburn MP Paul Martin, will stand.

As Mr Martin is the Speaker, and not a Labour MP, it is not technically in Labour's gift to pick the by-election date, but Prof Curtice said he expected the opposition parties to allow the government to choose it.

If that is the case, then Prof Curtice said he expected Labour to push the date out as far as possible, in the hope of more favourable conditions.

"Political circumstances at the moment are as dire, if not more dire, than they were last year for Glasgow East. Last year they called it as early as possible and that proved to be a big mistake, having a by-election in Glasgow in July.

"It is not in their interests to do this quickly. They will be hoping that the expenses scandal has faded away, that the green shoots of recovery will be appearing and they will take stock of their performance in (next month's] European elections."

That means the by-election, when it is called, may well be held towards the end of September. If he quits as MP on 21 June, the by-election would have to be held by 17 September. He may wait until the end of the session, which would allow for an October by-election.

Some in the SNP are now preparing for a snap general election in October, calculating that a by-election defeat would make Labour's position even worse for a general election, which would have to be called in a matter of months anyway.

Constituents divided over an MP 'out of his depth' AT THE Bells Bar in Springburn, patrons who looked down at their pint missed the point. So swift was their local MP at resigning that Joe Kelly missed Michael Martin's 33-second live televised statement. "He was out of his depth," reflected the retired welding supervisor. "He was a small fish wi' big sharks. Sincere, but not a great intellect."

For almost 30 years Michael Martin has represented the constituency of Springburn, which became Glasgow North East in 2005, but remains one of the poorest in Britain.

In 2001 it was revealed that the number of school leavers with no qualifications was 300 per cent higher than the Scottish average, unemployment is 140 per cent higher, with deaths from lung cancer 94 per cent higher and heart disease 40 per cent.

On Springburn's streets there are those who resent Mr Martin for his fat expenses and lavish life in London. "Hang 'em," declares Alec Mahon snr, 75.

Yet there are those like Margaret McLeod, 72, a retired nurse, who have dealt with him in person and see a good man doing his best for a blighted community. When she set up a support group for parents of drug abusers, the Speaker lent all his support. She said: "He did a lot of good work for the community that no-one knows about and he just got sucked in by the system."

The consequence of Mr Martin's imminent departure will be a by-election in which the electorate may view all politicians as possessed with the pox.

Unemployed Scott Thompson, 40, said he has watched with anger the expenses MPs have claimed. Asked who he will vote for in the by-election, he says the BNP, and adds: "I'm no' proud of saying that, but I've had enough of Labour, the SNP and all the rest." STEPHEN McGINTY