 | 'Loyalty/cowardice will likely mean that many of those who privately desire the PM's demise hold their tongues during the Labour conference this weekend. But many mutter darkly that the loss of Glenrothes (Labour majority: 10,664) will be the straw that breaks Gordon's back.' James Kirkup in the Telegraph,, 18 th September 2008. |  |
Never mind Manchester or the City of London, the clever money says Gordon Brown's fate will be decided in Glenrothes, Methil and Buckhaven.ÊLoyalty/cowardice will likely mean that many of those who privately desire the PM's demise hold their tongues during the Labour conference this weekend. But many mutter darkly that the loss of Glenrothes (Labour majority: 10,664) will be the straw that breaks Gordon's back.
High stakes then. Which leads us to an intriguing dilemma facing the Prime Minister.ÊIf his political life depends on it, shouldn't he go to Glenrothes to campaign?ÊOK, convention dictates that premiers don't do by-elections.ÊAnd OK, the omens aren't good - remember Tony Blair in Uxbridge?
But some of GB's colleagues, including some genuine supporters, think things are so serious he has to show his face in a seat that borders his own. Henry McLeish, the former Labour first minister and fellow Fifer wants the PM to "get his hands dirty" and campaign.ÊMichael Connarty, one of the sharper Scottish Labour backbenchers, says: "The days of Prime Minister sitting up in their ivory towers and instructing people from Westminster has gone. He has a case to put."
Privately, others think that Glenrothes would be a good opportunity for the PM to show some passion and drive, to "show that he still wants it," in the words of one still-sympathetic minister. (Yes, they do exist.)
Of course, advocates of the curse-of-Gordon theoryÊmay suggest that his presence would only harm Labour's hopes, but as a big figure in Fife, I suspect some personal appearances might well be a positive for his side.ÊThe Scottish Nationalists certainly won't hold back on sending their big guns:ÊAlex Salmond will virtually live in Glenrothes for the duration.ÊThere's also the fact that Labour's Glenrothes "campaign" is going to need all the help it can get.
It's a risk, of course. But when you're 28 points behind,Êwhat is there to lose?ÊIt's not as if a defeat is going to look any better if he stays away. Indeed, absence may come to look like the PM is already resigned to defeat.ÊOr worse, it may be seen as cowardice.ÊIt's hardly the sort of behaviour to inspire confidence in an unsettled party.
(Apologies if this is familiar ground to friends north of the Border, but amid global financial crises and ministerial resignations, sometimes we parochial English folk miss out on the fine points of Scottish political debate...)
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