Hamilton South By-election 1999
 | 'The only poll that matters is the one that will take place on the day of the by-election. We are taking nothing for granted and will fight a hard campaign based on the issues that matter to the people of Hamilton'
Secretary of State for Scotland, Dr John Reid MP, August 1999. |  |
Labour out in front in Advertiser poll
But they will still be in "poll position" when campaigning begins for the by-election to sucÐceed George Robertson.
SUPPORT for Labour in Hamilton has slipped in the three months since the elections to the Scottish Parliament.
These are the results of an opinÐion poll, commissioned by the Advertiser, in which potential voters were asked about political preferences and the issues that were most important to them.
The poll puts support for Labour at 50.8 per cent. That compares with the 54 per cent. polled by Tom McCabe when he won the seat for the party at the Scottish Parliament elections on May 6 and George Robertson's 65 per cent. share of the vote in the General Election two years earlier.
Whilst the poll figure may cause a flicker of apprehension among Labour supporters, it provides little cheer for the Scottish Nationalists whose share of the vote has fallen even further.
Their Hamilton South MSP canÐdidate Adam Ardrey polled a creditable 26.6 per cent., but our survey puts support for the party at 18.9 per cent. - only slightly more than their showing at the 1997 General Election.
Support for the Conservatives was 5.6 per cent, well down on the 11 per cent. recorded by the party's MSP candidate Margaret Mitchell and their eight per cent. share of the vote in the General Election two years earlier.
And the Liberal-Democrats polled five per cent. in our survey, almost three per cent less than the party's showing in the Scottish Parliament election in Hamilton South and about the same as their share of the vote two years earlier.
While the Advertiser poll proÐvides a good overview of the voters' current thinking, our researÐchers found that about a fifth of those questioned were `don't knows'... which clouds the water as regards a direct then-and-now comparison.
This figure of 18.5 per cent. "other or undecided" interviewees - suggesting that many have still to make up their minds how to vote - does, however, provide a crumb of comfort for the three parties on Labour's heels.
Dr. Jack Geekie, lecturer in social sciences at Bell College, commented: "It looks as if the Labour vote is holding up well in comparison with the the result at the Scottish Parliament poll.
"The voting pattern is down on the General Election result two years earlier, but George Robertson was a high profile and long-serving MP, and you would expect a drop in the Labour vote.
"There is a tradition of massive swings to the SNP in by-elections in Hamilton but I would be most surprised if, this time, the SNP do anything more than dent Labour's majority. The fact that Labour still seem remarkably popular in the National opinion polls will also have an effect in boosting their by-election position." Scottish Secretary John Reid said: "The only poll that matters is the one that will take place on the day of the by-election. We are taking nothing for granted and will fight a hard campaign based on the issues that matter to the people of Hamilton." A spokesman for Hamilton South Tories said: "The feedback we are getting demonstrates increasing disenchantment with Labour caused by broken promises such as those made over tuition fees.
"This drop in Labour support is not going to the SNP and we hope to capitalise on it as the campaign gets under way." Liberal-Democrat Central ScotÐland organiser Hugh O'Donnell said: "I would suspect that the difference between our figures is probably influenced by turnout." The Advertiser poll was conÐducted last Thursday and Friday by Mari Rodger Research. A total of 302 constituents were interviewed, of whom 50.7 per cent. were male and 49.3 per cent. were female.
Drugs and violence - areas of greatest concern
DRUG abuse is the issue which should be afforded the highest priority by the new MP for Hamilton South, according to the Advertiser opinion poll.
We asked constituents which issues they believed the new MP should tackle as a matter of emergency.
No fewer than 82.4 per cent. gave drugs the highest urgency rating followed 72.8 per cent. who considered that street violence should be given the highest priority.
Under-age drinking was also a concern with 67.1 per cent. believing that the town's new MP should take steps to tackle the problem immediately.
At the other end of the urgency scale, 44.9 per cent. gave a new stadium for Hamilton Accies the lowest priority rating.
The subject of councillors expenses, often a source of bitter debate, was only considered by 34.9 per cent. of interviewees to be an important matter requiring immediate attention.
The Health Service, jobs, and education were considered to be the most important issues by those surveyed followed by law and order, transport and the environment.
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