 | 'Devolution will kill the SNP stone dead.' Lord Robertson of Port Ellen. |  |
| 'Devolution will kill the SNP stone dead.' Lord Robertson of Port Ellen. | |
Most political commentators predicted that Labour would hold Hamilton South with a comfortable majority over the SNP. In fact a recount was required before Labour's Bill Tynan limped home with a 556 majority, down from 15,878 at the general election in what was previously the fifth safest seat in Scotland. The Scottish National Party's Annabelle Ewing, took 34 % of the vote, less than 3 % behind Labour in a 22.56 % swing from Labour to the Scottish National Party - more than twice that at Paisley South in 1997.
The result was a humiliation for Labour who had sent more than 100 MPs to campaign in Hamilton South, including the Prime Minister, Deputy Prime Minister, Defence Secretary, Scottish Secretary and the First Minister of Scotland. Blame was being apportioned, roughly equally, to Douglas Alexander, their campaign manager, John Reid and Donald Dewar. Labour MPs at Westminster were quick to pin the blame for the near disaster on the poor showing of the Scottish Executive and their own colleagues at Holyrood.
SNP candidate Annabelle Ewing caused a sensation when she almost repeated her mother's feat - Winnie Ewing started the SNP bandwagon rolling when she won Hamilton for the SNP in 1967. Had Labour not deliberately timed the poll to coincide with the SNP conference in Inverness, it seems almost certain that the seat would in fact have fallen to the SNP. On the current showing, the SNP will be looking forward to a possible by-election in Falkirk West, the seat of ex-Labour, now Independent MP and MSP Dennis Canavan. It had been widely predicted that whereas the SNP stood little chance in Hamilton South, Falkirk West looked like much more fertile ground for them.
In the Holyrood elections, the Scottish electorate appeared to confuse Arthur Scargill's Socialist Labour Party with Tommy Sheridan's Scottish Socialist Party. In Hamilton South there was no confusion - while Scargill's party came eighth with just over 1 %, the Scottish Socialist Party took almost 10 %, consolidating the third place which they won in Hamilton South in the European elections. This result is probably the best showing of a 'minor' party in any by-election since the war.
The Conservative vote was down even on their disastrous 1997 showing, suggesting that despite their presence in the Holyrood parliament they are not out of the woods yet and have yet to convince the electorate that they are no longer a party which considers Scots to be second class citizens.
For the Liberal Democrats the result was highly embarrassing. Not since David Owen's Social Democratic Party was beaten by the Monster Raving Loony Party at the Bootle by-election in 1990 had a major party been in such a humiliatingly poor position. The Lib Dems were beaten into sixth place, well behind Stephen Mungall who was representing the local football team, Hamilton Academicals. The disastrous result was no reflection on the Liberal Democrat candidate who was competent and fought a good campaign. However one or two of the pigs at the Holyrood Executive trough may wonder whether pork chops are now on the Scottish political menu. Before the Bootle by-election the position of David Owen's SDP was non negotiable - after it, the party was dead in the water. There is probably a message there for somebody (possibly writing on the wall?) if they care to read it.
The fact that a by-election was held on the same day as Wigan - like Hamilton South a traditional, rock-solid Labour constituency -allows comparisons to be made and suggests that the Hamilton South phenomena was a distinctly Scottish one. While the turnout in Hamilton South was only 41.3 % - 1.6 % lower than Paisley South - and the lowest in a Scottish by-election since 1945, in Wigan the turnout was less than 30 %. In Wigan, the Labour vote held up well, falling by 9 %, while in Hamilton South the Labour vote fell by almost 29 %. Likewise, while the Lib Dems increased their vote in Wigan by over 3 %, in Hamilton South the coalition partners lost almost 2 %.
Some commentators claim that while there is no credible opposition in England, in Scotland voters have the luxury of a protest vote for either the Scottish National Party or the Scottish Socialist Party. These 'protest' voters are thought to be likely to return to the fold at the General Election. However, the next Westminster election will take place in the mid term of the Holyrood parliament and Welsh Assembly. If voters continue to show their discontentment with the ruling coalition in Edinburgh by voting against them in the Westminster elections the result, as in Hamilton South, could be a lot closer than anyone predicts.
There is little doubt that the SNP's win in the 1967 Hamilton by-election was the first step towards the current Scottish Parliament. It remains to be seen whether the present by-election is the first step on the road to an Independent Scotland.
| Logo | Party | Candidate | Votes | % | % change since 97 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | Labour | Bill Tynan | 7,172 | 36.87 % | - 28.73% |
 | Scottish National Party | Annabelle Ewing | 6,616 | 34.01 % | + 16.39 % |
 | Scottish Socialist Party | Shareen Blackall | 1,847 | 9.49 % | + 9.49% |
 | Conservative | Charles Ferguson | 1,406 | 7.23 % | - 1.41 % |
| Hamilton Accies Home - Watson Away | Stephen Mungall | 1,075 | 5.53 % | + 5.53 % | |
 | Liberal Democrat | Marilyne MacLaren | 634* | 3.26 % | - 1.86 % |
 | Pro Life Alliance | Monica Burns | 257* | 1.32 % | - 0.75 % |
 | Socialist Labour | Tom Dewar | 238* | 1.22 % | + 1.22 % |
| Scottish Unionist Party | James Reid | 113* | 0.58 % | +0.58 % | |
 | UK Indepenence Party | Alistair McConnachie | 61* | 0.31 % | + 0.31 % |
 | Natural Law Party | George Stidolph | 18* | 0.09 % | +0.09 % |
| Status Quo | Drummond Murray | 17* | 0.09 % | +0.09 % | |
| Lab hold | Lab majority | 556 | 2.86 % | - 45.12 % |
| Logo | Party | Candidate | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Labour | George Robertson | 21,709 | 65.60% |
| Scottish National Party | Ian Black | 5,831 | 17.62% |
| Conservative | Robert Kilgour | 2,858 | 8.64% |
| Liberal Democrat | Richard Pitts | 1,693 | 5.12% |
| Pro Life | Colin Gunn | 684 | 2.07% |
 | Referendum | Stuart Brown | 316 | 0.95% |
| Labour hold | Labour majority | 15,878 | 47.98% |
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