Constituency Assessment

'We cannot base our military strategy on the assumption that Saddam is weak and at the same time justify pre-emptive action on the claim that he is a threat. Iraq probably has no weapons of mass destruction in the commonly understood sense of the term - namely a credible device capable of being delivered against a strategic city target. It probably still has biological toxins and battlefield chemical munitions, but it has had them since the 1980s when US companies sold Saddam anthrax agents and the then British Government approved chemical and munitions factories.' Robin Cook's resignation speech, 17 th March 2003.

Livingston

Local Government wards in the constituency

The new Livingston Westminster constituency consists of the old Livingston seat plus two wards from the old Linlithgow seat.

Westminster seat

Livingston was created in 1983 with 58% of its voters coming from the massive Midlothian seat and 42% from West Lothian. In the 1997 boundary changes about 5,000 voters from the Ratho and Kirkliston area were transferred to Edinburgh West and there were minor changes along the Linlithgow- Livingston border. The changes for the 2005 election added Blackburn and Fauldhouse from Linlithgow.

The seat includes the new town of Livingston and Broxburn, Mid Calder and West Calder. The West Lothian part of the seat has been held by Labour since it was created in 1935 and Midlothian since it was created in 1955. As Livingston was a new seat, it provided a safe haven for Robin Cook, who was MP for Edinburgh Central from February 1974 until 1983. The boundary changes had made Central a marginal seat, which was indeed won by the Conservatives in 1983, although they lost it again in 1987.

Despite the Labour traditions in West and Midlothian, Livingston returned Mr Cook with a majority of just 4,951, compared to a notional 1979 majority of 10,200. Cook obtained 37.7 % of the vote compared to 24.6 % for the SDP and 24.2 % for the Conservatives, with the SNP's Kenny MacAskill, now a Lothians MSP, taking 13.3 %.

In 1987, Livingston started to look much safer as Mr Cook took 35.6 % of the vote and more than doubled his majority to 11,105. The Liberal, Conservative and SNP candidates trailed with only 1,000 votes separating them with the Liberals on 19.1 %, the Conservatives on 18.7 % and the SNP on 16.6 %.

In 1992 there was a 5.6% swing from Labour to the SNP. Cllr Peter Johnson reduced Robin Cook's majority to 8,105 and advanced from fourth to second place. Labour took 4.4 %, the SNP 26.6 %, the Tories 19.6 % with the Lib Dems down to 8.6 %.

In 1997 the Tory vote collapsed throughout Britain and although the SNP's Cllr Peter Johnston increased the SNP vote to 27.5 %, Robin Cook's vote rose by 10.5 % to 54.9 % and he obtained a majority of 11,747 over the SNP. The Tory vote was down by 10.0 % to 9.4 % with the Lib Dems down to 6.7 %.

In 2001, Cook's majority fell slightly to 10,916 over the SNP. Although Robin Cook's share of the vote fell by 1.9 %, the SNP share fell further, by 3.9 %, allowing Cook to increase his majority over the SNP's Graham Sutherland to 29.5 %. The turnout was down to just 55.6 %, compared to 71.0 % in 1997.

Following the boundary changes for the 2005 election, the Labour notional majority in the new seat was calcuated to be 13,638 (31.9 %) by Professor David Denver, and 13,748 (32.2 %) by Martin Baxter of Electoral Calculus. At the election in June 2005, Robin Cook polled 51.1 % of the vote, giving him a 13,097 majoriy over the SNP's Cllr Angela Constance who polled 21.6 %. The Lib Dems polled 15.4 %, the Tories 10.2 % and the SSP 1.8 %.

Scottish parliamentary seat

Robin Cook was seen at one point as a possible leader of the Labour group in the Scottish Parliament but, like many Labour MPs who previously said they would stand for the Parliament, he finally decided against. With the Foreign Secretary preferring to remain at Westminster, Labour chose Cllr Bristow Muldoon, an ex Lothian regional councillor who represented the Dedridge ward on West Lothian council.

The result in the Scottish parliamentary seat of Livingston in 1999 was similar to that in neighbouring Linlithgow with an 8.4 % swing to the SNP from Labour. Bristow Muldoon was elected with a majority of 3,904 over Greg McCarra, down from 11,747 at the general election. Labour took 47.3 %, down by 7.6 % with the SNP up 9.2 % to 36.7 %; The Tories were down to 8.2 % with the Lib Dems up to 7.8 %.

In 2003, while Labour MSP Britow Muldoon, saw his vote fall by 3.7 %, his majority increased to 12.0 % over the SNP's Peter Johnston whose vote fell by 5.1 %. The Tories were up by 1.1 %, the Lib Dems by 0.6 %, the SSP by 5.4 %, and the Scottish Peoples Alliance too 1.2 % of the vote.