 | 'Ms Scanlon's early start may help her, though she has come in for some criticism for making the announcement on the day of Mrs Ewing's cremation.' Steve Bargeton, political editor, in the Courier, 29 th March 2006. |  |
| 'Ms Scanlon's early start may help her, though she has come in for some criticism for making the announcement on the day of Mrs Ewing's cremation.' Steve Bargeton, political editor, in the Courier, 29 th March 2006. | |
AFTER the bruising battle between Labour and the Liberal Democrats in Dunfermline, it's now the turn of Scotland's other two main parties to prove their mettle in the next by-election, in Moray. The contest on April 27, caused by the death of SNP MSP Margaret Ewing, will be a crucial test for both the Nationalists and the Tories ahead of next year's Holyrood elections.
Since the Second World War, the seat has been in Tory hands for 37 years and held by Nationalists for 24 years.
The SNP ought to be able to hold on quite comfortably - Mrs Ewing had a majority of 5312 at the last election in 2003, nearly 20 per cent ahead of the Tories. But with Alex Salmond's target of gaining an extra 20 first-past-the-post seats next May, the pressure will be on to ensure there is no fall-off in the Nationalist vote.
At the same time, the Tories will be eager to close the gap in order to prove they are on course to make their own gains next year. UK Tory leader David Cameron will visit the constituency to lend his support during the campaign.
The Tories' candidate, Mary Scanlon, was first to enter the race, announcing she would resign as a list MSP for the Highlands and Islands, as required by the rules, to become the candidate. Ms Scanlon had already been chosen to fight the seat next year but could have been forgiven for ducking out of the by-election rather than risk being out of a job.
Party colleagues praise her sacrifice and say others are being cynical when they speculate that her decision is likely to mean a temporary absence from Holyrood but the reward of a high place on the top-up list to help her return next year.
One colleague says: "All the polling shows people think politicians are in it for themselves, but here is someone willing to put what might seem a cushy job on the line.
"There are no guarantees for her - she was not top of the list last time. She could be out. If you step off the escalator, there's no guarantee you can get back on."
Ms Scanlon's early start may help her, though she has come in for some criticism for making the announcement on the day of Mrs Ewing's cremation.
The SNP is expected to endorse Richard Lochhead as its candidate at the weekend, meaning he too will have to quit as a list MSP. Earlier this year he beat Mrs Ewing's sister-in-law Annabelle in the selection contest to fight the seat next year. Mr Lochhead was seen as Alex Salmond's preferred choice and the result was interpreted as a setback for the Ewing dynasty - veteran Nationalist Winnie Ewing, Margaret's mother-in-law, represented the seat between 1974 and 1979.
The SNP has performed badly in recent by-elections, not only bombing in Dunfermline but also failing to win Livingston following Robin Cook's death or take Cathcart despite the former Labour MSP being jailed for fireraising.
A decisive victory in Moray, one of its own heartlands, is therefore a must.
But the Tories, who were never going to do well in Dunfermline, Livingston or Cathcart, have also got to come out well from Moray.
It will be the first parliamentary contest to provide a real test for David Cameron in Scotland. And it will show whether the Tories can increase their vote in areas of traditional strength.
One senior Tory admits: "If we are not going to do well in seats like Moray, how are we going to progress in next year's elections? The by-election is a week ahead of the English council elections. A good result will give us a bounce going into these elections, a poor result will work against us."
So both parties have much at stake. But the Tories are cheekily intent on presenting Ms Scanlon as the "natural heir" to the seat. "She is Margaret Ewing's true successor," claims the senior Tory. "She has exactly the same approach to her work and her priorities. Mary and Margaret were on the same side on many issues."
It's all very well David Cameron posing as Tony Blair's natural successor, but Tories trying to take on the Nats' mantle is a daring move indeed.
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