 | 'At some time in the next six to eight months, a by-election is expected in the Labour-held seat of Motherwell and Wishaw when Jack McConnell takes up his post as the next High Commissioner for Malawi. If the SNP was to win that by-election, it would give the Nationalists 48 seats to Labour's 45 Ð a crucial three-vote gap which would give the pro-local income tax side 64 votes and their opponents 64 votes.' Hamish Macdonell in the Scotsman, 5 th September 2008. |  |
"I MAY be missing something here," said Professor James Mitchell of Strathclyde University, "but I just don't see how they are going to get this through the parliament."
Prof Mitchell had looked closely at the positions of all the parties in the Scottish Parliament and concluded that Alex Salmond stands little chance of getting the local income tax on to the statute books.
At first glance, the parliamentary arithmetic appears to back this up but, as with everything in a minority parliament, the reality is a little more complicated than that.
The Scottish Nationalists have 47 MSPs. Presuming ministers can do a deal with the Liberal Democrats and bring their 16 MSPs on board, this gives the Scottish Government 63 votes, two short of the majority needed to carry the policy.
This is where the Greens come in. So far at least, the Greens have stayed firm to their policy of a land value tax. They want a property-based tax and, as long as they stick to that principle, they will not be brought over to the government side.
There have been some suggestions at Holyrood that the Greens might be bought off with changes to the Climate Change Bill but ministers would have to make significant changes to their environmental plans to get the Greens to take such a big step.
There appears to be only one possible way out for the Scottish Government. At some time in the next six to eight months, a by-election is expected in the Labour-held seat of Motherwell and Wishaw when Jack McConnell takes up his post as the next High Commissioner for Malawi.
If the SNP was to win that by-election, it would give the Nationalists 48 seats to Labour's 45 Ð a crucial three-vote gap which would give the pro-local income tax side 64 votes and their opponents 64 votes.
At this stage, the position of independent MSP Margo MacDonald would be absolutely crucial. She has shown no sign of wanting to back Mr Salmond on these tax plans, but she is also a good negotiator and could probably raise substantial sums for policies of her own in Edinburgh, if she was willing to do a deal.
Mr Salmond has a tough job getting this policy through and, as with most important decisions in a minority parliament, it will come down to backroom deals between parties.
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