 | 'I know the Secretary of State very very well - because he's my father.' Beattie Media employee, Kevin Reid. |  |
| 'I know the Secretary of State very very well - because he's my father.' Beattie Media employee, Kevin Reid. | |
THE Scottish National Party is leading Labour in the first significant opinion poll since the May election.
NFO System Three's survey for The Herald puts the SNP level with Labour on first vote intentions for the Scottish Parliament and ahead by a point in the second vote.
John Swinney, the troubled SNP leader, appears to be gaining some relief because of Labour's dwindling appeal to voters disillusioned with Tony Blair's performance over Iraq.
Although the findings will be dismissed by Labour as largely academic - the next elections are for the European Parliament and almost a year away - they will offer encouragement to Mr Swinney as he prepares to fend off an embarrassing grassroots challenge to his leadership at the SNP conference next month.
The poll comes after last week's findings by NFO System Three that three-quarters of Scots believe the Labour government was partly responsible for the presumed suicide of Dr David Kelly. It is also in line with recent polls in England showing Tony Blair's personal standing being damaged by Iraq, and Labour's popularity sliding in the wake of the war and the row over alleged duplicity by No 10 in justifying it.
NFO System Three suggests Labour has dropped four points since the Scottish general election while the SNP has gained seven, making the two major parties level on 31%.
In the second vote, the main source of the SNP's poor election performance, the Nationalists are ahead of Labour by a point after a six-point jump to 27%. Labour has slipped three points to 26. The findings must, however, be treated with caution. The low turnout of just 50% at the election in May showed just how voter apathy can distort polling evidence, notably in assessing Tory support, and also how the effects of the second vote are almost impossible to predict.
A fairer comparison with the latest poll could be with the NFO System Three survey conducted just before May 1, when Labour had a 10-point lead over the SNP in the constituencies and the two rival parties were level in second voting with 28% each.
Labour's lead in the constituencies is wiped out, but in second voting little has changed - the downside for the SNP, which depends on top-up list MSPs for the bulk of its Holyrood seats.
This means that Tommy Sheridan's Socialists (up two points) and the Greens (up one) are still moving ahead, although their findings fall within the margin of error.
The strong showing of the SSP, Greens, and Independents did more damage in May to the SNP than to Labour, which also lost six seats as minority candidates and parties broke through with 17 MSPs. Their combined second vote tally in the poll is 22%.
NFO System Three finds the Liberal Democrats retaining their 15% showing in the election in the constituencies, and up four points on the second vote.
The Tories are down steeply in both, but Conservative voters' reluctance to admit their allegiance to pollsters suggests that they are probably still holding their ground as they did in May.
THEY said the honeymoon was all over, but it might not be now.
John Swinney is still away from his desk, and his post-nuptial holiday with Elizabeth Quigley, the SNP's new first lady, lasts another week.
Today's result from NFO System Three, showing the nationalists edging ahead of Labour, suggests his honeymoon as party leader still has some way to run.
When the happy couple left last weekend, the political commentators were united in agreeing that the leadership challenge by Bill Wilson had plunged the SNP into turmoil, with bitter infighting making daily headlines, to the joy of Labour and the Tories.
Mr Swinney will return from honeymoon next week suddenly able to argue that the picture might not be so bleak after all for the Nationalists, as they try to resolve their differences without further bloodletting.
The leader knows, though, that poll results can be fleeting, and the results from May 1 are still uppermost in SNP minds.
Senior party leaders are braced for a conference showdown on two main issues dividing supporters of Mr Swinney and Dr Wilson, the grassroots activist who has split the party by challenging the leader - the first time a rival has ever laid claim to a serving SNP national convener's job.
Supporters of Dr Wilson accuse Team Swinney of putting the SNP's priority objective of independence on the back burner by promising a referendum on the issue if the party wins power.
They are also resisting a centralised membership structure which, they argue, would take power away from constituency associations and branches, weakening internal democracy.
Dr Wilson insists there is no point in the SNP asking voters to back independence in a general election and then offering the same voters the chance to reject it once the SNP is in power.
Mr Swinney's supporters argue it is inconceivable the ultimate constitutional question for Scotland could be resolved without a referendum.
A meeting of party strategists yesterday put the question of centralised lists down for debate at Inverness next month when the issue is expected to be resolved by a straightforward delegate vote.
The referendum issue will be dealt with in the wider context of a full debate on the SNP's "roadmap" to independence, a move that will focus clearly the differing strategies dividing the party.
Peter Murrell, SNP chief executive, denied a report yesterday that the party had "slumped" into a debt of £500,000 and that Mr Swinney was "beleaguered" by lack of funding.
Mr Murrell said half of the figure was accounted for by interest-free loans given by party member four years ago after the 1999 elections. "There is no rush for repayment," he said. A further £40,000 would be repaid in June, he said, and another £23,000 was for payments on leases of equipment including photocopiers. "These are normal costs for normal lease arrangements," he said, adding: "Our operating debt is about £192,000 which is far better than it was four years ago. We are not in a financial crisis."
Mr Swinney has ordered a review of SNP funding, admitting the party needs more money and that its internal structure is in need of radical reform as part of his proposed modernisation drive.
The SNP is alone among the four main Scottish parties in having no corporate or trade union funding, relying on individual donations.
John Swinney, who faces a challenge to his leadership of the SNP at the party's annual conference next month, has received a belated wedding present offering cheer on the political as well as the domestic front. However, Mr Swinney, who is on honeymoon with his wife, Elizabeth, should scrutinise the surprise gift carefully before dashing off a gushing thank-you note. On the face of it, the latest System Three/NFO poll for The Herald, published today, offers the prospect of happier days ahead for his party. After its disastrous showing in the May elections, when it lost eight seats, the new poll shows the SNP neck-and-neck with Labour in voter intentions for the first Holyrood ballot and a point ahead on the second, list vote. The findings do not necessarily mean that the SNP is on the way back, or that the public is coming round to "real-life nationalism". They are more about Labour in Scotland losing popularity than the nationalists gaining it. This is not because of anything Labour has (or has not done) in Scotland since returning to power at Holyrood.
The Baghdad factor, which exerted a major influence on the Scottish elections campaign until British troops went into battle in Iraq and the war appeared won, is again demonstrating its potential to dominate domestic Scottish politics. It is not only the SNP that has made a gain at Labour's expense. The poll shows that 22% of Scots would cast their second vote for a minority party (the Scottish Greens or the Scottish Socialists) or an independent candidate. Added to the SNP vote, that bloc would account for 49% of the electorate. But neither is that necessarily good news for Mr Swinney. His strategy for sensibly managing Scotland to independence by its nature rejects the protest and radical politics espoused by the others.
The May elections demonstrated that their gains are the SNP's losses. These also showed that there is a point in voting for minority parties, especially in the second vote, because it can make a difference. The latest poll suggests that the public has not lost the taste for sophisticated voting. In truth, the nationalists have done nothing noticeable recently, other than to fall out with themselves over political strategy and publish accounts showing that the party is some half-a-million pounds in debt. Neither achievement is likely to seduce voters. If the poll findings are, on an optimistic reading, equivocal for the SNP, the message is crystal clear for Labour.
If the results were replicated in an election, Jack McConnell could lose a significant number of seats. That would be an especially bitter experience for the first minister if the reason was punishing Tony Blair for going to war with Iraq for a cause that has failed to materialise (tackling the imminent threat of weapons of mass destruction). Before the May elections, there was widespread opposition in Scotland to waging war in Iraq.
It faded when British troops went into action and Saddam was toppled. But it has come back with an apparent vengeance, precisely because the prime minister has failed to make a case to the public that he can be trusted. If anything, he faces a mounting challenge. The public appears to be even more sceptical about Mr Blair after the suicide of Dr David Kelly, whose death some three-quarters of Scots believe the government bears a degree of responsibility for. Mr Swinney faces an uncomfortable month or two ahead. In the continued absence of WMDs, and the looming Hutton inquiry into Dr Kelly's death, it is nothing compared to the tests confronting the prime minister.
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