 | 'Alex Salmond has got his opponents in the Scottish Parliament dancing to his tune. He's the Pied Piper and he's going to lead them off the cliff. It's high time the Unionist parties stopped this nonsense from the Nationalists and said bring it (a referendum] on.' Ex Tory Secretary of State for Scotland, Lord Forsth of Drumlean, 4 th April 2008. |  |
Two out of three Scots want a referendum on Scottish Independence by 2011, according to a new poll.
The YouGov poll for the The Times also puts SNP support at Holyrood on 40 per cent of the constituency vote and 33 per cent of the regional vote against Labour's 32 per cent and 30 per cent.
On those figures, the SNP would increase its seats by two and Labour would lose two seats. SNP depute leader, Nicola Sturgeon MSP said:
"We are delighted with these poll figures. The strong SNP lead which has increased since the election shows that the honeymoon continues nearly a year into government, on the back of solid policy delivery. The poll shows the SNP winning more votes and more seats since last May.
"The poll also shows that support for independence is on the increase, and is being boosted by the SNP's record in office. And there is overwhelming support for a referendum in the lifetime of this parliament, which is an enormous boost for the SNP's policy. The other parties are appealing to barely a fifth of the people, and are deeply split on the issue they will find it impossible to justify refusing to support the right of the people to decide Scotland's future in a democratic referendum.
"And for a Westminster election, the SNP are within touching distance of Labour for the first time in a generation with the ability to win a barrow load of seats in what could be a tight parliamentary situation. The SNP could well hold the balance of power at Westminster after the General Election, which would mean that the areas where the UK government is currently saying No to Scotland would quickly change to Yes.".
The YouGov poll was conducted from 2-4 April, sample 1,070.
1) Scottish Parliament constituency vote (change since 2007 in brackets).
SNP: 40% (+7)
Lab: 32% (-)
Con: 12% (-5)
Lib: 13% (-3)
Oth: 4%
2) Scottish Parliament list vote (change since 2007 in brackets)
SNP: 33% (+2)
Lab: 30% (+1)
Con: 13% (-1)
Lib: 12% (+1)
Oth: 13%
3) Holyrood seats projection:
SNP: 49 (+2)
Lab: 44 (-2)
Con: 15 (-2)
Lib: 15 (-1)
Oth: 6 (+3)
4) Westminster General Election (change since 2005 in brackets)
SNP: 31% (+13)
Lab: 35% (-5)
Con: 17% (+1)
Lib: 12% (-11)
Oth: 4%
5) Support for a referendum on Scottish independence:
Immediate referendum: 11%
Within the next year: 28%
In 2010: 26%
Should not be referendum: 21%
None of these: 4%
Don't know: 11%
6) Support or oppose country becoming a country independent of the rest of the UK
Support: 34%
Oppose: 50%
DK: 15%
[The Sunday Times/mruk CELLO poll interviewed 1,028 adults across Scotland between 29 February and 9 March and put support for independence at 23% - although two-third said they would be prepared to support it in certain circumstances.]
7) The SNP have been in power 11 months. Do achievements make you more or less likely to vote for independence:
Much more likely: 17%
A little more: 15%
No difference: 35%
A little less: 8%
Much less: 19%
Don't know: 7%
A majority of Scots would like the chance to vote in an independence referendum. That is
according to a poll out today, which shows support for the SNP government at Holyrood remains
strong. But it is not all good news for the nationalists, as Labour retain their lead in
London.
Unionist efforts to gatecrash the SNP's extended honeymoon appear to have stalled yet again. It seems the Scottish public would rather join in the government's national conversation than engage with the unionists' constitutional review-stroke-commission, trumpeted by Wendy Alexander just a week ago.
65% of Scots quizzed in today's YouGov poll support an independence referendum, apparently
validating the SNP's policy.
Nicola Sturgeon, the deputy first minister, said: "I think it puts enormous pressure on the
other parties who say they want change to concede that the only democratic way of deciding what
that change should be is in a referendum."
But what the poll giveth the SNP with one hand, it taketh with the other. Given the choice, just over a third of Scots would actually vote for independence.
Labour MSP Jackie Baillie said: "I can't really see very many taxpayers saying let's spend
millions of our hard earned money on running a referendum over the course of three months when we
already know the answer to it."
While independence may still be far away, the party that advocates separation is still riding
high in Holyrood consitituency vote,
eight points clear of Labour.
Nicola Sturgeon went on to say: "We're almost a year into the new government and the poll
shows that we're doing better now than we were in the election last year, so that's great
news."
But at Westminster, the SNP is closing in but not quite catching Labour. Jackie Baillie said:
"We will always listen to what the people of Scotland are telling us, but you know the only
poll that matters is the one that occurs at the general election."
Until the nationalists can topple their rivals at Westminster, London Labour remains an
obstacle that could yet derail their honeymoon train.
FORMER Labour First Minister Henry McLeish has said Scotland's future should eventually be resolved with a referendum on independence.
But the ex-MP and MSP said that a snap poll - as proposed by Scotland's richest man Sir Tom Hunter - would be a mistake, insisting that there first needed to be a major UK-wide debate about the future of the Union.
His comments come as a new poll this weekend reveals 65% of voters in Scotland believe there should be a referendum vote within the next two years.
It follows Hunter's call for an immediate vote, revealed in Scotland on Sunday last week, in which he declared that Scots should get the chance to decide on the destiny of their country.
He said that Scotland would then be able to move on, either as an independent nation or as part of the Union.
The poll found that only 11% of Scots support Hunter's call for an immediate referendum. However, 28% think one should be held next year, with 26% saying it should be in 2010.
Only 21% think there should not be a referendum, with 15% expressing no view.
Following Hunter's call last week, several Labour MPs have declared they too want to force a referendum in a bid to "shoot the SNP's fox". The same poll this weekend shows that if a poll were to be held today, independence would be defeated. Only 34% of Scots would back independence, with 50% of Scots saying they oppose it.
McLeish told Scotland on Sunday: "I think the issue has to be resolved at some point with a referendum, but for that to happen there needs to be a more informed debate, and I think the public are both bemused and confused by so many conversations taking place.
"Yes, it has to be resolved at some point in the future, but to get there we need to take the public more seriously, we need to take the business community more seriously and we need to have a more informed debate that looks at the Union."
McLeish said that his favoured option was to turn Britain into a federal country, where Scotland and Wales would become semi-autonomous but would still be part of the UK when it came to defence and foreign affairs.
He attacked all the Scottish parties for failing to back it.
"I can't for the life of me see why some kind of federalism, with far more autonomy for Scotland, still part of the Union, can't be one of the options.
"A lot of people I speak to in Scotland, in all the parties including the SNP, see that as a valid option."
Gordon Brown is now coming under pressure from several Scottish MPs over the referendum question, but ministers are insisting they will not bend. Scottish Secretary Des Browne declares today that there is "no need" for a referendum when last year "two-thirds of electors in Scotland rejected the notion that our country should be broken up".
However, it is understood Hunter has received private backing for his own plan from across the political spectrum.
A spokesman for the billionaire said last night: "The political parties can't on the one hand claim voters don't want independence and then deny them the opportunity to vote on that very subject. There's no logic to their stance."
Hunter was backed by former Scottish Secretary Lord Forsyth last night. He said: "We should recognise the person Alex Salmond is - people voted for him because they were fed up with Labour, not because they wanted independence.
"We should end the instability and uncertainty, and get this argument out of the way. There's great anxiety in Scotland because of the uncertainty, and business hates uncertainty. I would support any proposal to have a referendum as soon as possible."
He added: "Alex Salmond has got his opponents in the Scottish Parliament dancing to his tune. He's the Pied Piper and he's going to lead them off the cliff. It's high time the Unionist parties stopped this nonsense from the Nationalists and said bring it (a referendum] on."
Commenting on McLeish's intervention, a spokesman for the First Minister said: "This is a positive contribution to the debate, and we particularly welcome support from Henry McLeish for a referendum. The leadership of the Labour and Tory parties are becoming more isolated by the day on this issue."
The poll, carried out by YouGov, took the views of 1,070 Scottish-based adults between April 2 and 4, 2008.
A NEW poll suggests nearly two thirds of Scots want a referendum on independence, despite growing support for keeping the union.
The YouGov poll revealed 65% of the 1028 Scots surveyed said they would want the constitutional question to be settled at the ballot box within the parliament's lifetime. But support for independence has fallen 6% since the last poll in January 2006.
Only 32% of those polled said that the performance of the SNP government had made them more likely to vote for independence. However, the Nationalists are holding on to 40% of the constituency vote and 33% of the regional vote, against Labour's 32% and 30% respectively.
The poll claims that if a Scottish election was held now the SNP would increase its seats by two and Labour would lose two seats.
Nicola Sturgeon, deputy SNP leader, said she was "delighted" with the figures. "The strong SNP lead shows that the honeymoon continues nearly a year into government, on the back of solid policy delivery.
"The SNP could well hold the balance of power at Westminster after the general election, which would mean that the areas where the UK government is currently saying No to Scotland would quickly change to Yes."
Sturgeon went on to say that support for a referendum by 2011 was an "enormous boost for the SNP's policy".
She added: "The other parties are appealing to barely a fifth of the people, and are deeply split on the issue - they will find it impossible to justify refusing to support the right of the people to decide Scotland's future in a democratic referendum."
But political commentator Professor James Mitchell, from Strathclyde University, called the poll "meaningless."
"Polls come and go on the independence option, so I don't take them too seriously. It's meaningless asking people this question when there's no referendum. This doesn't serve to help serious political analysis, at best this poll is a bit of fun."
Mitchell said it was no surprise that people wanted a referendum because "people liked to be asked on any issue".
He said: "Polls are far too unsubtle to get any sense of what's really going on."
A spokesman for the Conservatives said: "Independence is a minority aspiration from one minority party."
Labour's Jackie Baillie said: "Yet again, we have a poll that shows two thirds of respondents rejecting independence.
"The SNP should take note - the vast majority of Scots have consistently made their view on independence clear.
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