 | 'Just under a half of Scots cast a valid vote in the Scottish Parliament election on 1 May. And of those who did between a quarter and a fifth cast their second vote for someone other than one of the four parties that dominated representation in the last parliament. These two facts present an apparent paradox. On the one hand devolution appears to be doing little or nothing to help re-engage Scots with their political system. On the other hand devolution seems to be having a profound impact on Scottish politics. Can both statements possibly be true?.' John Curtice, SPICe Briefing Paper, 6 May 2003. |  |
Since the 1970s, System Three polls have been the definitive monthly snapshots of Scottish political opinion. System 3 polls around 1,000 voters in around 40 constituencies towards the end of the month. The polls were generally published in the Herald on the first Monday of the following month. The 'date' mentioned below refers to the month of publication of the poll. The polls were discontinued in December 2003, but in September 2006, three new polls were published.
| Party | Labour | Scottish National Party | Conservative | Liberal Democrat | Scottish Green Party | Scottish Socialist Party | Others | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Vote |  |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
| 29 April 2003 | Constituency | 38 % | 28 % | 10 % | 14 % | 2 % | 6 % | 1 % |
| Regional | 28 % | 28 % | 9 % | 13 % | 7 % | 10 % | 5 % | |
| 1 May 2003 Holyrood elections | Constituency | 34.62 % | 23.78 % | 16.61 % | 15.36 % | 0.00 % | 6.20 % | 3.43 % |
| Regional | 29.30 % | 20.86 % | 15.50 % | 11.78 % | 6.90 % | 6.68 % | 8.98 % | |
| 4 August 2003 | Constituency | 31 % | 31 % | 13 % | 15 % | 2 % | 5 % | 2 % |
| Regional | 26 % | 27 % | 9 % | 16 % | 8 % | 9 % | 5 % | |
| 9 September 2003 | Constituency | 33 % | 31 % | 10 % | 16 % | 3 % | 4 % | 2 % |
| Regional | 26 % | 28 % | 9 % | 15 % | 9 % | 7 % | 6 % | |
| 7 October 2003 | Constituency | 32 % | 31 % | 12 % | 15 % | 3 % | 5 % | 1 % |
| Regional | 25 % | 25 % | 8 % | 20 % | 8 % | 10 % | 4 % | |
| November 2003 | Constituency | 35 % | 29 % | 11 % | 17 % | 1 % | 5 % | 2 % |
| Regional | 25 % | 30 % | 11 % | 16 % | 8 % | 6 % | 4 % | |
| 9 December 2003 | Constituency | 35 % | 30 % | 15 % | 11 % | 1 % | 7 % | 1 % |
| Regional | 28 % | 28 % | 13 % | 14 % | 4 % | 8 % | 5 % | |
| Party | Labour | Scottish National Party | Conservative | Liberal Democrat | Scottish Green Party | Scottish Socialist Party | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Vote | |
|
|
|
|
|
| 5 th July 2006 | Constituency | 37 % | 31 % | 11 % | 14 % | 3 % | 3 % |
| Regional | 29 % | 33 % | 9 % | 17 % | 5 % | 5 % | |
| 2 nd August 2006 | Constituency | 37 % | 29 % | 13 % | 14 % | 2 % | 3 % |
| Regional | 29 % | 32 % | 10 % | 15 % | 8 % | 4 % | |
| 5 th September 2006 | Constituency | 36 % | 28 % | 12 % | 17 % | 3 % | 4 % |
| Regional | 28 % | 27 % | 11 % | 19 % | 8 % | 6 % | |
| 19 th November 2006 | Constituency | 38 % | 30 % | 12 % | 14 % | 3 % | 3 % |
| Regional | 30 % | 33 % | 9 % | 17 % | 6 % | 4 % | |
| 10 th December 2006 | Constituency | 35 % | 32 % | % | % | % | % |
| Regional | 32 % | 30 % | 11 % | 15 % | 5 % | 4 % | |
| 14 th January 2007 | Constituency | 38 % | 33 % | 11 % | 14 % | % | % |
| Regional | 33 % | 30 % | 13 % | 16 % | 6 % | 3 % | |
| 1 st April 2007 | Constituency | 34 % | 39 % | 13 % | 11 % | 3 % 1 | |
| Regional | 25 % | 36 % | 11 % | 13 % | 16 % 1 | ||
Source: TNS System Three. Polling was June 29 to July 4, with 1041 respondents aged 18, face-to-face in their homes across 42 constituencies, excluding 29% of people who were uncommitted. The second poll was July 27 to August 1, with 996 respondents, 35% of them uncommitted. The third poll was of 989 respondents between August 24 and 29, finding 33% of them to be uncommitted. There was also a poll in late September but I am unaware of the party ratings.
1 "Others"
Total (Constituency MSPs + Additional Members)
Where projections of the numbers of seats that would be won by each party were published in the Herald, the analysis by Colin Pennycook for the Scots Independent was used.
| Party | Labour | Scottish National Party | Conservative | Liberal Democrat | Scottish Green Party | Scottish Socialist Party | Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 1 May 2003 Holyrood elections | 50 (46 + 4) | 27 (9 + 18) | 18 (3 + 15) | 16 (13 + 4) | 7 (0 + 7) | 6 (0 + 6) | 4 (1 + 3) |
| Labour short of overall majority by 15 seats SNP short of overall majority by 38 seats | |||||||
| 4 August 2003 | 40 (34 + 6) | 37 (23 + 14) | 8 (2 + 6) | 21 (12 + 9) | 9 (0 + 9) | 10 (0 + 10) | 4 (1 + 3) |
| Labour short of overall majority by 25 seats SNP short of overall majority by 28 seats | |||||||
| 7 October 2003 (Herald figures) |
44 | 34 | 7 | 24 | 7 | 11 | 4 (1 + 3) |
| Labour short of overall majority by 21 seats SNP short of overall majority by 31 seats | |||||||
| November 2003 | 47 (43 + 4) | 36 (17 + 19) | 14 (0 + 14) | 20 (12 + 8) | 12 (1 + 11) | ||
| Labour short of overall majority by 18 seats SNP short of overall majority by 29 seats | |||||||
| 8 December 2003 (Herald figures) |
50 | 35 | 15 | 18 | 2 | 7 | 2 |
| Labour short of overall majority by 15 seats SNP short of overall majority by 30 seats | |||||||
| 5 September 2006 (Scotsman figures) |
49 | 24 | 23 | 20 | 9 | 11 | 3 |
| Labour short of overall majority by 16 seats SNP short of overall majority by 41 seats | |||||||
| 1 March 2007 | 44 | 51 | 13 | 16 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
| Labour short of overall majority by 16 seats SNP short of overall majority by 41 seats | |||||||
1 SSP/Solidarity
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