Lorna Martin & Michael Settle in the Herald, 9 th April 2003.
| 'During the fighting in Baghdad, a US tank fired a round at the Palestine Hotel, the base for most western journalists, killing two journalists, Taras Protsyuk of Reuters and Jose Couso of Spain's Tele 5. In a separate incident, US ground forces fired on the Baghdad offices of al-Jazeera, the Arabic satellite network, killing one of their correspondents, Tareq Ayoub, a Jordanian.' Lorna Martin & Michael Settle in the Herald, 9 th April 2003. | |
LABOUR is stretching ahead of the Scottish National Party as the Holyrood Parliament election campaign is about to enter its final two weeks, an opinion poll for The Times has found.
However, both Tony Blair and Jack McConnell will be alarmed that the poll also provides evidence that Labour voters are more likely to stay at home on May 1 than Scottish National Party voters.
Mr McConnell, though, seems to be winning the personal battle with John Swinney with this poll putting him 13 points ahead of the Scottish National Party leader in terms of trustworthiness.
The poll also appears in line with UK-wide polling evidence in that it indicates that Labour in Scotland is benefitting from a mini 'Baghdad Bounce' with voters feeling that Mr Blair's stance on war in Iraq has been vindicated.
The opinion poll for The Times conducted by Populus, who interviewed 500 voters in Scotland between last Thursday and Saturday, shows that Labour has 41 per cent support on the first constituency vote and 34 per cent on the second regional list vote.
This compares with 29 per cent for the Nationalists on the first vote and 31 per cent on the second vote. The poll suggests support for the Liberal Democrats, Labour's ruling coalition partners in the first Parliament, has slumped to only 11 per cent on the first vote and 10 per cent on the second vote.
The Tories are also facing a sharp cut in their number of MSPs in the next Parliament with only 10 per cent backing on the first vote and 12 per cent on the second vote.
These figures, though, would keep the Tories as third largest party in the Parliament, with 13 seats, one seat ahead of the Lib Dems, who may now be suffering from their determined opposition to the war on Iraq.
The hard-left Scottish Socialists have 5 per cent support on the first vote and 7 per cent on the second, which would translate to six seats - five more than they had in the last Parliament, but down in terms of other recent polls.
Other parties have 4 per cent support on the first vote and 6 per cent in the second, suggesting there will be either two Greens or independents in the new Parliament.
In terms of seats Labour would have 58, two more than they achieved in 1999. The SNP would have 38, three more than in 1999. The Tories would have 13 (down five), the Lib Dems 12 (down five), the Scottish Socialists six (up five).
Such an outcome would lead inevitably to another Labour-Liberal Democrat coalition with a total of 70 seats between them, an overall majority of 11, six fewer than in the first Parliament.
Compared to the last Populus poll at the beginning of February, Labour are six points higher on the first vote and only one point down on the second. SNP support is about the same (30 per cent support on both votes in February).
The Liberal Democrats are the biggest losers, five points down on the first vote and four points down on the second. The Tories are only one point down on the first vote and at the same mark as February for the second. Support for the Scottish Socialists is also down, by 3 per cent, for the first vote but level-pegging for the second.
The Populus poll in February gave Labour 56 seats, the SNP 37, the Lib Dems 17, the Tories ten, the Scottish Socialists eight and others two.
Potential turnout for these second devolved elections remains the biggest worry for the parties. With only just over two weeks to go to polling day, the poll shows only 48 per cent of those asked said they were Òabsolutely certain to voteÓ, down 10 per cent on the turn out in May 1999 and up only 4 per cent on the Populus poll two months ago.
In terms of turn-out by supporters of individual parties Labour has especial cause to worry, with only 47 per cent of its supporters saying they are certain to vote compared to 58 per cent of those who say they will be voting SNP.
That reinforces the belief that Labour voters are prepared to abstain as a result of their opposition to war on Iraq. Other factors, such as the use of private finance in the provision of public services and a general dislike of new Labour policies, may also be causing concern to more traditional left-wing Labour supporters in Scotland.
The poll also shows that Scots are evenly split on using the Scottish ParliamentÕs tax-raising powers with 46 per cent saying that they would support a party prepared to use the tax powers to fund extra investment in public services. In all 47 per cent said they would oppose such a policy.
As well as being ahead on 'trustworthiness', Mr McConnell is also ahead of Mr Swinney in voter recognition terms although 13 per cent of voters say they have never heard of the First Minister. That compares with nearly one in four who say they have never heard of Mr Swinney, 1 per cent more than those who say they have never heard of Jim Wallace, the Deputy First Minister and Lib Dem leader.
The biggest winner in terms of recognition is Tommy Sheridan, the charismatic leader of the Scottish Socialists. Only 9 per cent say they have never heard of him - 4 per cent less than Mr McConnell.
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