ICM Opinion Poll for Scotland on Sunday

'Members will be elected to the Scottish Parliament by proportional representation, which is in itself a totally flawed and undemocratic system.'
Laurence Robertson MP (Con, Tewkesbury) clearly demonstrates why there are no longer any Conservative MPs in Scotland, Hansard, 13 th January 1998.

Breakdown of May 3 prediction by constituency

The historic election for Scotland's parliament on May 6 next year will introduce a new system of voting. Each voter will have two votes - the first will elect constituency members of the Scottish parliament as in Westminster elections. The second will be for a regional list of candidates put up by each party. The purpose of this so called additional member system is to ensure that parties win seats in proportion to the number of votes they receive. The Scottish parliament will have 129 members - 73 elected with the first vote and 56 elected with the second.

Voting Preference for Scottish Parliament

First Vote for Scottish parliament

Q: Your first vote will be for one member for a constituency as Westminster. If the elections were held now which party would you vote for?

Party Labour Scottish National Party Conservative Liberal Democrat

Date Labour logo SNP logo Conservative logo Liberal logo

3 rd May 1997 42 % 36 % 12 % 8 %

Party	Labour	Scottish National Party	Conservative	Liberal Democrat
Date
3 rd May 1997	42 %	36 %	12 %	8 %

Second Vote for Scottish parliament

Q: Your second vote will be for a list of candidates put up by each party to represent your region of Scotland. You can vote for the same party as you did with your first vote or for a different party. If the elections were held now which party would get your second vote.

Party Labour Scottish National Party Conservative Liberal Democrat

Date Labour logo SNP logo Conservative logo Liberal logo

3 rd May 1997 36 % 39 % 11 % 11 %

Party	Labour	Scottish National Party	Conservative	Liberal Democrat
Date
3 rd May 1997	36 %	39 %	11 %	11 %

Party by party breakdown of vote-switching between first and second votes:

1 st vote	2 nd vote
Con	Con 67 %	Lab 9 %	LD 10 %	SNP 13 %
Lab	Con 2 %	Lab 60 %	LD 7 %	SNP 30 %
LD	Con 13 %	Lab 23 %	LD 51 %	SNP 12 %
SNP	Con 4 %	Lab 20 %	LD 7 %	SNP 67 %

Comment: Of those stating both a First and a Second Vote intention, overall 66 % would vote for the same party twice.

Projected Scottish Parliament Seats

Method: This simulation by Prof. John Curtice of Strathclyde University is based on the assumption that the change in party support since the 1997 Westminster election (both to our first vote and second vote totals) occurs uniformly across Scotland.

Party Labour Scottish National Party Conservative Liberal Democrat

Vote Labour logo SNP logo Conservative logo Liberal logo

1 st vote 52 13 0 8

2 ndvote 3 39 10 4

Total 55 52 10 12

Required for majority: 65.
Lab + LD coalition = 67 SNP + LD coalition = 64

Party	Labour	Scottish National Party	Conservative	Liberal Democrat
Vote
1 st vote	52	13	0	8
2 ndvote	3	39	10	4
Total	55	52	10	12

Highlands & Islands

Party	Labour	Scottish National Party	Conservative	Liberal Democrat
Logo
1 st vote - constituency seats	1	4	0	3
2 nd vote - regional seats	2	3	1	1
Total Seats	3	7	1	4

Constituency seats

Argyll & Bute SNP gain from Lib Dem

Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross SNP gain from Lib Dem

Inverness East, Nairn & Lochaber SNP gain from Lab

Moray SNP hold

Ross, Skye & Inverness West Lib Dem hold

Orkney (new seat) Lib Dem hold

Shetland (new seat) Lib Dem hold

Western Isles Lab hold

Constituency seats
Argyll & Bute	SNP gain from Lib Dem
Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross	SNP gain from Lib Dem
Inverness East, Nairn & Lochaber	SNP gain from Lab
Moray	SNP hold
Ross, Skye & Inverness West	Lib Dem hold
Orkney (new seat)	Lib Dem hold
Shetland (new seat)	Lib Dem hold
Western Isles	Lab hold

North East Scotland

Party	Labour	Scottish National Party	Conservative	Liberal Democrat
Logo
1 st vote - constituency seats	5	3	0	1
2 nd vote - regional seats	0	5	2	0
Total Seats	5	8	2	1

Constituency seats

Aberdeen Central Lab hold

Aberdeen North Lab hold

Aberdeen South Lab hold

Angus SNP hold

Banff & Buchan SNP hold

Dundee East Lab hold

Dundee West Lab hold

Gordon Lib Dem hold

West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine SNP gain from Lib Dem

Constituency seats
Aberdeen Central	Lab hold
Aberdeen North	Lab hold
Aberdeen South	Lab hold
Angus	SNP hold
Banff & Buchan	SNP hold
Dundee East	Lab hold
Dundee West	Lab hold
Gordon	Lib Dem hold
West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine	SNP gain from Lib Dem

Mid Scotland & Fife

Party	Labour	Scottish National Party	Conservative	Liberal Democrat
Logo
1 st vote - constituency seats	5	3	0	1
2 nd vote - regional seats	1	4	2	0
Total Seats	6	7	2	1

Constituency seats

Central Fife Lab hold

Dunfermline East Lab hold

Dunfermline West Lab hold

Kirkcaldy Lab hold

North East Fife Lib Dem hold

North Tayside SNP hold

Ochil SNP gain from Lab

Perth SNP hold

Stirling Lab hold

Constituency seats
Central Fife	Lab hold
Dunfermline East	Lab hold
Dunfermline West	Lab hold
Kirkcaldy	Lab hold
North East Fife	Lib Dem hold
North Tayside	SNP hold
Ochil	SNP gain from Lab
Perth	SNP hold
Stirling	Lab hold

West of Scotland

Party	Labour	Scottish National Party	Conservative	Liberal Democrat
Logo
1 st vote - constituency seats	9	0	0	0
2 nd vote - regional seats	0	5	1	1
Total Seats	9	5	1	1

Constituency seats

Clydebank & Milngavie Lab hold

Cunninghame North Lab hold

Dumbarton Lab hold

Eastwood Lab hold

Greenock & Inverclyde Lab hold

Paisley North Lab hold

Paisley South Lab hold

Renfrewshire West Lab hold
Strathkelvin & Bearsden Lab hold

Constituency seats
Clydebank & Milngavie	Lab hold
Cunninghame North	Lab hold
Dumbarton	Lab hold
Eastwood	Lab hold
Greenock & Inverclyde	Lab hold
Paisley North	Lab hold
Paisley South	Lab hold
Renfrewshire West	Lab hold
Strathkelvin & Bearsden	Lab hold

Glasgow

Party	Labour	Scottish National Party	Conservative	Liberal Democrat
Logo
1 st vote - constituency seats	9	1	0	0
2 nd vote - regional seats	0	6	0	1
Total Seats	9	7	0	1

Constituency seats

Anniesland Lab hold

Baillieston Lab hold

Cathcart Lab hold

Govan SNP gain from Lab

Kelvin Lab hold

Maryhill Lab hold

Pollok Lab hold

Rutherglen Lab hold

Shettleston Lab hold
Springburn Lab hold

Constituency seats
Anniesland	Lab hold
Baillieston	Lab hold
Cathcart	Lab hold
Govan	SNP gain from Lab
Kelvin	Lab hold
Maryhill	Lab hold
Pollok	Lab hold
Rutherglen	Lab hold
Shettleston	Lab hold
Springburn	Lab hold

Central Scotland

Party	Labour	Scottish National Party	Conservative	Liberal Democrat
Logo
1 st vote - constituency seats	9	1	0	0
2 nd vote - regional seats	0	7	0	0
Total Seats	9	8	0	0

Constituency seats

Airdrie & Shotts Lab hold

Coatbridge & Chryston Lab hold

Cumbernauld & Kilsyth Lab hold

East Kilbride Lab hold

Falkirk East Lab hold

Falkirk West Lab hold

Hamilton North & Bellshill Lab hold

Hamilton South Lab hold

Kilmarnock & Loudoun SNP gain from Lab

Motherwell & Wishaw Lab hold

Constituency seats
Airdrie & Shotts	Lab hold
Coatbridge & Chryston	Lab hold
Cumbernauld & Kilsyth	Lab hold
East Kilbride	Lab hold
Falkirk East	Lab hold
Falkirk West	Lab hold
Hamilton North & Bellshill	Lab hold
Hamilton South	Lab hold
Kilmarnock & Loudoun	SNP gain from Lab
Motherwell & Wishaw	Lab hold

Lothians

Party	Labour	Scottish National Party	Conservative	Liberal Democrat
Logo
1 st vote - constituency seats	8	0	0	1
2 nd vote - regional seats	0	5	2	0
Total Seats	8	5	2	1

Constituency seats

Edinburgh Central Lab hold

Edinburgh East & Musselburgh Lab hold

Edinburgh North & Leith Lab hold

Edinburgh Pentlands Lab hold

Edinburgh South Lab hold

Edinburgh West Lib Dem hold

Linlithgow Lab hold

Livingstone Lab hold

Midlothian Lab hold

Constituency seats
Edinburgh Central	Lab hold
Edinburgh East & Musselburgh	Lab hold
Edinburgh North & Leith	Lab hold
Edinburgh Pentlands	Lab hold
Edinburgh South	Lab hold
Edinburgh West	Lib Dem hold
Linlithgow	Lab hold
Livingstone	Lab hold
Midlothian	Lab hold

South of Scotland

Party	Labour	Scottish National Party	Conservative	Liberal Democrat
Logo
1 st vote - constituency seats	6	1	0	2
2 nd vote - regional seats	0	4	2	1
Total Seats	6	5	2	3

Constituency seats

Ayr Lab hold

Carrick, Cumnock & Doon Valley Lab hold

Clydesdale Lab hold

Cunninghame South Lab hold

Dumfries Lab hold

East Lothian Lab hold

Galloway & Upper Nithsdale SNP hold

Roxburgh & Berwickshire Lib Dem hold

Tweedale, Ettrick & Lauderdale Lib Dem hold

Constituency seats
Ayr	Lab hold
Carrick, Cumnock & Doon Valley	Lab hold
Clydesdale	Lab hold
Cunninghame South	Lab hold
Dumfries	Lab hold
East Lothian	Lab hold
Galloway & Upper Nithsdale	SNP hold
Roxburgh & Berwickshire	Lib Dem hold
Tweedale, Ettrick & Lauderdale	Lib Dem hold

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