The historic election for Scotland's parliament on May 6 next year will introduce a new system of voting. Each voter will have two votes - the first will elect constituency members of the Scottish parliament as in Westminster elections. The second will be for a regional list of candidates put up by each party. The purpose of this so called additional member system is to ensure that parties win seats in proportion to the number of votes they receive. The Scottish parliament will have 129 members - 73 elected with the first vote and 56 elected with the second.
Voting Preference for Scottish Parliament
Westminster voting intentions
Q: If there were a general election for the Westminster parliament tomorrow which party would you vote for?
| Party | Labour | Scottish National Party | Conservative | Liberal Democrat |
|---|
| Date |  |  |  |  |
|---|
| 3 rd May 1997 | 47 % | 27 % | 16 % | 9 % |
|---|
First Vote for Scottish parliament
Q: Your first vote will be for one member for a constituency as Westminster. If the elections were held now which party would you vote for?
| Party | Labour | Scottish National Party | Conservative | Liberal Democrat |
|---|
| Date | | | | |
|---|
| 3 rd May 1997 | 42 % | 36 % | 12 % | 8 % |
|---|
Second Vote for Scottish parliament
Q: Your second vote will be for a list of candidates put up by each party to represent your region of Scotland. You can vote for the same party as you did with your first vote or for a different party. If the elections were held now which party would get your second vote.
| Party | Labour | Scottish National Party | Conservative | Liberal Democrat |
|---|
| Date | | | | |
|---|
| 3 rd May 1998 | 36 % | 39 % | 11 % | 11 % |
|---|
Party by party breakdown of vote-switching between first and second votes:
| 1 st vote Con | 2nd Con 67 % | Lab 9 % | LD 10 % | SNP 13 % |
|---|
| 1 st vote Lab | 2nd Con 2 % | Lab 60 % | LD 7 % | SNP 30 % |
|---|
| 1 st vote LD | 2nd Con 13 % | Lab 23 % | LD 51 % | SNP 12 % |
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| 1 st vote SNP | 2nd Con 4 % | Lab 20 % | LD 7 % | SNP 67 % |
|---|
Comment: Of those stating both a First and a Second Vote intention, overall 66 % would vote for the same party twice.
Projected Scottish Parliament Seats
| Party | Labour | Scottish National Party | Conservative | Liberal Democrat |
|---|
| Vote | | | | |
|---|
| 1 st vote | 52 | 13 | 0 | 8 |
|---|
| 2 ndvote | 3 | 39 | 10 | 4 |
|---|
| Total | 55 | 52 | 10 | 12 |
|---|
Required for majority: 65.
Lab + LD coalition = 67
SNP + LD coalition = 64
Breakdown by constituency
Federal Government
Q: Do you agree that Scotland, England and Wales should each have their own seperate parliaments in a new federal structure of government in the UK?
Blair out of touch with Scotland?
Q: Do you think Tony Blair is in touch, or out of touch with the needs of the people of Scotland?
| In touch | 45 % |
|---|
| Out of touch | 46 % |
|---|
Labour stands up for Scotland?
Q: Do you think that Labour stands up for Scotland, or not?
Dewar's popularity
Q: Overall do you think Donald Dewar is doing a good job or a bad job for the people of Scotland?
Best First Minister
Q: Irrespective of which party you support which of the following do you think would make the best First Minister?
| Donald Dewar | 41 % |
|---|
| Alex Salmond | 40 % |
|---|
Tax Varying
Q: The Scottish Parliament will be able to raise or lower the standard rate of income tax by up to 3p in the pound. Which of the following do you think it should do?
| Raise Tax | 48 % |
|---|
| Lower Tax | 6 % |
|---|
| Leave it as it is | 43 % |
|---|
State Opening of Parliament
Q: Do you think the Queen should open the Scottish parliament when it meets for the first time?
The SNP in Scottish elections
Q: Other people have said there is more reason for voting SNP in the Scottish elections than in Westminster elections. Do you agree or disagree?
Coalition government
Q: Which of the following do you think would be best for Scotland when the new Scottish parliament is created? A government formed by a single political party or a government formed by two parties in coalition?
| Single party | 33 % |
|---|
| Coalition | 62 % |
|---|
Which coalition?
Q: If there were to be a coalition which option would you prefer?
| Labour & Lib Dems | 50 % |
|---|
| SNP & Lib Dems | 44 % |
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The Constitution
Q: For the running of Scotland as a whole which of the following constitutional arrangments would you most like to see?
| Date | Independence | Devolution | No parliament |
|---|
| Sept 1997 | 28 % | 38 % | 30 % |
| Feb 1998 | 28 % | 48 % | 21 % |
| May 1998 | 33 % | 48 % | 17 % |
Comment: Support for independence and devolution both currently equal their respective record highs since ICM first asked the question in May 1996.
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