Most Marginal Seats and Party Targets

'We are perceived as weak... We are perceived as soft... All this, of course, is perception... But all of these things add up to a sense that the Government - and this even applies to me - are somehow out of touch with gut British instincts.' Tony Blair, July 2000.

Most Marginal Seats and Party Targets

In the Scottish General election of May 2003, there will be two battlegrounds. The first is the constituency vote, and the second the regional vote where additional seats will be awarded in an attempt to make the result slightly more representative of the votes cast.

Swings
Swing is a term which defines the change in percentage vote between two parties. The change in percentage vote for each party are added together then divided by two to give the Two Party Swing. The two examples below demonstrate this:

1. Glasgow Govan.
   Labour polled 44.09 % in the 1997 Westminster election and 43.31 % in the 1999 Holyrood election, a drop of 0.78 %.
   The Scottish National Party polled 35.05 % in the 1997 Westminster election and 36.65 % in the 1999 Holyrood election, an increase of 1.60 %.
   The swing from Labour to the SNP was (0.78 + 1.60)/2 = 1.19 %.
   
   
2. Glasgow Shettleston.
   Labour polled 73.16 % in the 1997 Westminster election and 53.95 % in the 1999 Holyrood election, a drop of 19.21 %.
   The Scottish National Party polled 13.98 % in the in the 1997 Westminster election and 27.33 % in the 1999 Holyrood election, an increase of 13.35 %.
   The swing from Labour to the SNP was (19.21 + 13.35)/2 = 16.28 %.

• Most marginal seats in 1999

• Smallest majorities in 1999
  
  
• Conservative Target Seats

• Labour Target Seats

• Liberal Democrat Target Seats

• Scottish National Party Target Seats

• Scottish Socialist Party Target Seats