Candidates and Constituency Assessments

'An article in the Scotland on Sunday newspaper alleged that a Scottish minister had used the words 'fascists' and 'bastards' to describe the firefighters in the context of their dispute. Although no-one was named by the newspaper Deputy Justice Minister Dr Richard Simpson appeared to put himself in the frame during an interview on BBC Radio Scotland the following day. When the newspaper stood by its story Dr Simpson was summoned to talks with the first minister after which it was announced that he had quit. He subsequently admitted using the words when discussing the dispute but insisted he was only repeating what was being said by the public.'
Brian Ponsonby, on BBC Scotland News, 30 th December 2002.

Ochil (Mid Scotland & Fife Region)

Candidates

	Cllr Keith Brown (Also number 5 on Mid Scotland & Fife list)
	Scottish National Party
	Keith Brown was an elected member of the SNP's National Council and Assistant Spokesperson on Industry, Technology & Employment. He worked as Unison official and local government officer in Stirling. Keith Brown was elected as councillor for the Clackmannanshire ward Alva in a dramatic by-election contest in 1996 and became the leader of Clackmannanshire council in May 1999 when the SNP replaced Labour as the major party. The veteran of several national election campaigns, in April 2006 Keith Brown was selected as candidate for Ochil winning 75 % of votes in a one-member one-vote ballot. Cllr Brown told the Airdrie & Hillfoots Advertiser: 'I am delighted to have been selected and to have won such a clear mandate from SNP members in Ochil, and my task now is to make sure that the superb representation provided by George Reid is continued after 2007, by ensuring that the SNP retain this seat. I am fairly confident that we can do it and make advances because the Labour government, both in Westminster and in Holyrood, is in a fairly disgruntled state. It was a big breakthrough when the seat was taken from Labour in 2003 because Ochil is a marginal seat. We aren't keen to see it change so it's up to us to retain the seat, and I think we can make gains across Scotland.' Recent electoral experience 2003 Scottish Parliament election, Falkirk East, 7,576 votes (27.49 %) 2003 Scottish Parliament election, Sixth on SNP Central Scotland list, 59,274 votes (22.52 %) 2003 Local council election, Clackmannanshire, Alva North, 631 votes (53.89 %) (elected) 2001 Westminster election, Ochil, 10,655 votes (30.18 %) 1999 Scottish Parliament election, Falkirk East, 11,582 votes (32.89 %) 1999 Scottish Parliament election, Sixth on SNP Central Scotland list, 91,802 votes (27.78 %) 2003 Local council election, Clackmannanshire, Alva North, 745 votes (52.99 %) (elected) 1997 Westminster election, Falkirk East, 9,959 votes (23.94 %) 1996 Local council by-election, Clackmannanshire, Alva, 602 votes (46.70 %) (elected) 1994 European election, Lothians, 53,324 votes (26.46 %) 1992 Westminster election, Dundee West, 9,894 votes (23.64 %)
	Lorraine Caddell (Also number 8 on Mid Scotland & Fife list)
	Liberal Democrat
	Councillor Caddell has represented the Craigie area of Perth for the Liberal Democrats since 1984. At present she is Convener of the Planning Committee and also sits on the Development Control Committee and the Strategic Policy & Resources Committee. She is also a member of the Tayside Joint Valuation Board (Vice Convener) and Tayside ContractsÕ Joint Committee. She represents the Council on several outside bodies and is the Council representative for NHS Tayside sitting on the board on the Clinical Governance Committee. She also runs the successful St Johnstone Nursing Home in Perth and is involved in local voluntary groups. Her husband, Independent Councillor Jimmy Doig is the leader of the Council. In 2004 the Lib Dems broke off an alliance with the Tories and Labour and formed a new administration with the SNP with Jimmy Doig remaining Council leader. Recent electoral experience 2003 Perth & Kinross Council election, Craigie, 550 votes (33.83 %) (elected) 1999 Perth & Kinross Council election, Craigie, 634 votes (32.25 %) (elected) 1995 Perth & Kinross Council election, Tullylumb, 813 votes (42.02 %) (elected) 1992 Perth & Kinross District Council election, (elected) 1988 Perth & Kinross District Council election, (elected) 1984 Perth & Kinross District Council election, (elected)
	Cllr Brian Fearon (Not standing on Mid Scotland & Fife list)
	Labour
	Cllr Brian Fearon has represented the Muirside ward Clackmananshire Council since 2003. He is Convenor of the Performance & Audit Committee. He runs his own business Brian Fearon Consultancy and works for the Universities of Edinburgh and Stirling as a Seassional Tutor and the Scottish Executive on the Accreditation Panel on Criminal Justice Programmes. Recent electoral experience 2003 Clackmananshire Council election, Muirside, 634 votes (53.28 %) (elected)
	George Murray (Not standing on Mid Scotland & Fife list)
	Conservative & Unionist
	The Tory candidate was previously James Mackie, an agent provocateur and loose canon who in 1999 accused the SNP of 'ethnic cleansing' and in 2006 engaged in a very public rant against Scottish Tory leader Annabel Goldie. The new Tory candidate is George Murray. Recent electoral experience.

Constituency profile

Assessment:

This assessment is based on the 2003 election results

Rank on Labour hit list: 3 (- in 2003)
Swing required for Labour gain: 0.49 % from Scottish National Party to Labour

Rank on Conservative hit list: 36 (32 in 2003)
Swing required for Conservative gain: 14.33 % from Scottish National Party to Conservative

Rank on Liberal Democrat hit list: 22 (21 in 2003)
Swing required for Liberal Democrat gain: 15.0 % from Scottish National Party to Liberal Democrat

Correlation to the new Westminster constituencies

The electorate of 57,780 was split between the new Westminster constituencies of:
Ochil & South Perthshire: 45,303 (78.4 %)
Stirling: 12,477 (21.6 %)

Local Government wards in the constituency

Council	Ward number	Ward name	Electorate (June 2001)
Perth & Kinross	39	Milnathort and North Kinross	2,946
	40	Kinross Town	2,783
	41	Kinross-shire	2,979
Stirling	1	Bridge of Allan	3,030
	2	Logie	2,710
	13	Polmaise	3,209
	14	Sauchenford	3,169
Clackmannanshire	1	Menstrie	1,713
	2	Alva North	2,106
	3	Alva South	1,985
	4	Tillicoultry West	2,046
	5	Tillicoultry East	2,054
	6	Dollar and Muckhart	2,080
	7	Devon and Clackmannan North	2,404
	8	Clackmannan	2,186
	9	Gartmorn	2,314
	10	Alloa North	2,199
	11	Alloa East	1,830
	12	Alloa Mar	1,661
	13	Alloa West	1,801
	14	Alloa Claremont	1,901
	15	Fairfield	1,995
	16	Muirside	2,370
	17	St Serf's	1,948
	18	Delph & Cambus	2,002

Previous results

1 st May 2003 Holyrood Election - Constituency result

Electorate 53,412 (Reported in press as 55,596.) Turnout 30,416, 56.95 % (- 7.66 %)
Logo	Party	Candidate	Votes	%	% change
	Scottish National Party	George Reid MSP	11,659	38.33	+ 0.13 %
	Labour	Dr Richard Simpson MSP	11,363	37.36	- 4.37 %
	Conservative & Unionist	Malcolm Parkin	2,946	9.69 %	- 1.57 %
	Liberal Democrat	Catherine Whittingham	2,536	8.34 %	- 0.47 %
	Scottish Socialist Party	Felicity Garvie	1,102	3.62 %	(+ 3.62 %)
	Official Monster Raving Loony Party	Flash Gordon Approaching	432	1.42 %	(+ 1.42 %)
	ND	William Whyte	378	1.24 %	(+ 1.24 %)
	Scottish National Party gain from Labour	Scottish National Party majority	296	0.97 %

1 st May 2003 Holyrood Election - Regional list result

Electorate 53,412. Turnout 30,569, 57.17 % 168 rejected ballot papers
Logo	Party	Votes	%	% change
	Labour	10,076	33.14 %	- 3.13 %
	Scottish National Party	8,610	28.32 %	- 4.20 %
	Conservative & Unionist Party	3,451	11.35 %	- 2.18 %
	Liberal Democrats	2,554	8.40 %	- 1.41 %
	Scottish Green Party	1,983	6.52 %	+ 2.32 %
	Scottish Socialist Party	1,352	4.45 %	+ 3.46 %
	Pensioners's Party	1,068	3,51 %	(+ 3,51 %)
	Socialist Labour Party	364	1.20 %	- 1.08 %
	Save Local Hospitals - Dunfermline, Perth, Stirling	339	1.12 %	(+ 1.12 %)
	UK Independence Party	146	0.48 %	(+ 0.48 %)
	Fighting Hospital Closures & Downgrading	138	0.45 %	(+ 0.45 %)
	Scottish Peoples Alliance	123	0.40 %	(+ 0.40 %)
	Christian Independent Alliance Upholding Community Values	98	0.32 %	(+ 0.32 %)
	Tom Gray, Independent	64	0.21 %	(+ 0.21 %)
	Damien Quigg, Independent	34	0.11 %	(+ 0.11 %)
	Labour majority	1,466	4.82 %	+ 1.06 %

6 th May 1999 Holyrood Election - Constituency Result

Party	Candidate	Votes	%	% change
Labour	Dr Richard Simpson	15,385	41.73 %	- 3.28 %
Scottish National Party	George Reid	14,082	38.20 %	+ 3.82 %
Conservative & Unionist	Nick Johnston	4,151	11.26 %	- 3.32 %
Liberal Democrat	James Thorne Erskine, 14 Earl of Mar & 16 the Earl of Kellie	3,249	8.81 %	+ 3.64 %
Labour win	Labour majority	1,303	3.53 %	- 7.10 %

6 th May 1999 Holyrood Election - Regional list result

Party	Votes	%
Labour	13,367	36.27 %
Scottish National Party	11,983	32.52 %
Conservative & Unionist Party	4,985	13.53 %
Liberal Democrats	3,614	9.81 %
Scottish Green Party	1,549	4.20 %
Socialist Labour Party	840	2.28 %
Scottish Socialist Party	363	0.99 %
Pro Life Alliance	82	0.22 %
Natural Law Party	67	0.18 %
Labour majority	1,384	3.76 %

1 st May 1997

Party	Candidate	Votes	%
Labour	Martin O'Neil	19,707	45.01 %
Scottish National Party	George Reid	15,055	34.38 %
Conservative ∓ Unionist	Allan Hogarth	6,383	14.58 %
Liberal Democrat	Ann Watters	2,262	5.17 %
Referendum	Derek White	210	0.48 %
D Nat	Ian McDonald	104	0.24 %
Natural Law	Mike Sullivan	65	0.15 %
Labour hold	Labour majority	4,652	10.63 %

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